Month: July 2024

WASHINGTON — Taliban efforts to solidify the group’s control over Afghanistan are bringing a measure of peace and stability to its residents, but intelligence gathered by United Nations member states suggests the reprieve is not likely to last.

A report issued late Wednesday by the U.N. sanctions monitoring team warns that Afghanistan will almost certainly remain a source for insecurity with terror groups like al-Qaida and Islamic State either finding safe haven or finding ways to exploit the Taliban’s weaknesses.

“The country continues to be perceived as permissive or friendly territory by terrorist groups,” the report warns. “Continued Taliban tolerance of a range of terrorist groups, based across many Afghan provinces, sets the conditions for terrorism to project into neighboring States.”

Al-Qaida, in particular, continues to thrive, taking advantage of its long-term ties to the Taliban despite being forced to keep a low-profile.

Al-Qaida expansion

U.N. member states contend al-Qaida has used the past year to reorganize and recruit, building out its network of training camps and safe houses across at least five Afghan provinces, including bases in the eastern city of Jalalabad and offices in Kabul.

The expansion has also attracted more al-Qaida operatives, including some that the U.N. report described as “experienced instructors” from outside of Afghanistan, whose mission is “to enhance the security of dispersed cells.”

The report further alleges that de facto al-Qaida leader Saif al-Adel, believed to be in Iran, has sent ethnic Arab operatives to the Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nuristan to improve training and facilitate communication with the group’s core leadership.

Other key al-Qaida figures in Afghanistan have also found added safety thanks to the Taliban.

Taliban protection

Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, an al-Qaida commander captured in 2010 and held in a prison at Bagram air base until U.S. forces left in 2021, was placed in protective custody, the report says, “reflecting Taliban concerns that foreign intelligence agencies were looking for him.”

Two other al-Qaida officials, described in the report as “weapons engineers,” were also given protection by the Taliban, while an al-Qaida official from Libya was reportedly given an Afghan passport and a position at the Interior Ministry.

“The intent behind these activities is not clear, nor are the consequences for the group’s capabilities, but the activities cause significant concern,” the report says of al-Qaida.

US assessment

The U.N. assessment stands, in some ways, in contrast to assessments shared late last year by the United States.

“Al-Qaida is at its historical nadir in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely,” National Counterterrorism Center Director Christine Abizaid said in a statement marking the anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terror attacks on the U.S. that killed almost 3,000 people.

But such views are at odds with the picture put together by the U.N., which maintains al-Qaida has between 30 and 60 senior officials in Afghanistan, along with hundreds of fighters and almost 2,000 family members.

Islamic State-Khorasan

While al-Qaida may be seeing the start of a revival thanks to the Taliban rule of Afghanistan, the intelligence shared in the new U.N. report finds the Islamic State terror group is coming under pressure.

U.N. member states “credit Taliban efforts to counter the threat from [IS-Khorasan],” it says. “But [they] question the Taliban’s counter-terrorism capabilities and have concerns about continued [IS-Khorasan] recruitment and dispersal.”

The result, according to the report, is an Islamic State affiliate that is slowly positioning itself to undermine Taliban rule while actively carrying out attacks as far afield as Iran and Russia.

IS-Khorasan capacity “remains strong,” according to the report, noting the group’s deadly attacks in Kerman, Iran, this past January and on a Moscow concert hall this past March.

IS-Khorasan spreading

The intelligence suggests IS-Khorasan has expanded into a number of adjacent Central Asian states.

IS-Khorasan “is using Afghan nationals to conduct attacks in Pakistan, Pakistani nationals to conduct attacks inside Afghanistan, Tajik nationals to conduct attacks in Iran (Islamic Republic of) and the Russian Federation and has used a Kyrgyz national to carry out an attack in the Taliban’s heartland of Kandahar,” the U.N. report says.

The terror group also appears to be growing in parts of Afghanistan.

“[It] has strengthened in northern regions of Afghanistan, increasing recruitment within Tajik and Uzbek communities and stockpiling arms and explosives in remote mountainous areas,” according to the report.

And one of the U.N. member states warned it sees indications IS-Khorasan may be preparing to try to reestablish territorial control in some areas.

IS undercover

Other intelligence shared with the U.N. by its member states raises concerns that IS-Khorasan may be preparing to take down the Taliban from within.

The report says there is evidence that IS-Khorasan operatives have infiltrated the Taliban’s Interior and Defense ministries, as well as its General Directorate of Intelligence.

There is also concern that the group is finding ways to hide its true presence.

The report estimates IS-Khorasan has 2,000 to 3,500 fighters, with members of other IS affiliates in Afghanistan helping to swell that number to as many as 6,000.

But U.N. member states allege the group is embedding its fighters in as many as four other terror groups, including some that get training and welfare benefits from the Taliban-run government.

IS special forces

There is also some evidence to suggest IS-Khorasan has set up a special operations force in Iran.

According to two U.N. member states, the force is made up of mostly Tajik and Uzbek nationals, charged with carrying out attacks on Shia shrines, clergy and Iranian police.

One of the two U.N. member states said the force could have as many as 300 fighters and appears to be operating along Iran’s borders with Pakistan, Turkmenistan and Iraq.

Central Asia

As with the U.N. assessment of al-Qaida’s fortunes in Afghanistan, the U.N. assessment of a large and possibly growing IS presence in the country also runs counter to some U.S. assessments, which see a much smaller footprint.

But more recent U.S. intelligence estimates have raised concerns about the ability of IS-Khorasan to project power into Central Asia and beyond.

A top U.S. counterterrorism official last month warned that IS appeared to be trying to take advantage of changing migration patterns that are sending more Central Asians to the U.S. southern border with Mexico.

Treasury Department sanctions unveiled last month also pointed to the involvement of an IS operative in Uzbekistan and the emir of the IS affiliate in the Republic of Georgia in a plot to smuggle operatives to the U.S.

Global reach

Some analysts say the additional details in the U.N. report are evidence that IS-Khorasan, also known as ISKP, remains on a worrisome trajectory.

“ISKP intensified its Central Asia outreach after the U.S.-withdrawal from Afghanistan and rolled out Tajik and Uzbek media arms in 2022,” according to Lucas Webber, a research fellow at the global intelligence firm, The Soufan Center.

“This initiative continues to expand,” he told VOA, pointing to the introduction of a new IS Tajik language magazine days after the group’s terror attack in Moscow.

And there are other worrisome signs.

“There has been an uptick in ISKP-linked arrests throughout Central Asia in the last few months,” Webber added, saying that could indicate the recent high-profile attacks could be “just the start of what the group has planned.”
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ISLAMABAD — Pakistan announced Wednesday it had extended the stay of more than 1.4 million lawful Afghan refugees for another year. 

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said the decision was made during a cabinet meeting he chaired in Islamabad. 

The statement noted that the meeting approved extending the validity of proof of registration cards, or PoR, for Afghan refugees legally residing in the country to June 30, 2025. It added that the cards had expired last month on June 30. 

The document enables refugee families in Pakistan to access health, educational, and banking facilities and protects them from forced deportations to Afghanistan. 

The cabinet meeting occurred a day after the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, wrapped up a visit to Islamabad, where his discussions with Sharif and other senior officials focused on the problems facing the Afghan refugee community.  

A post-visit UNHCR statement issued on Tuesday noted that its chief “called for the timely extension” of the PoR cards, describing them as a “critical identity document” held by Afghan refugees in Pakistan.  

Refugee controversy 

“Grandi expressed appreciation that the ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan [IFRP]’ had been suspended and sought assurances that it would remain on hold,” the UNHCR said.  

Pakistan implemented the plan last October and began expelling foreigners, primarily Afghans, who do not possess legal documents or have their visas expired. The crackdown stemmed from rising terror attacks against Pakistani security forces and civilians. More than 600,000 Afghans have since been forced to return to their home country.  

A senior Pakistani official privy to Grandi’s meetings in Islamabad on Tuesday confirmed to VOA that his government had halted expulsions of undocumented Afghans under the IFRP. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter with the media.  

However, on Wednesday, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson disputed the UNHCR’s assertions about Islamabad suspending the IFRP. 

“This is not true,” Mumtaz Baloch told VOA in a written statement.  

“It may be noted that no such understanding has been given by Pakistan to the UNHCR, including in recent meetings with the High Commissioner for Refugees,” Baloch emphasized.  

She noted the “IFRP remains in place and is being implemented in an orderly and phased manner.” 

Afghanistan’s Taliban government, as well as human rights groups, have condemned Islamabad’s plan to forcefully send Afghans back, saying it is in violation of refugee and international laws.  

Rights activists also cited sweeping restrictions the fundamentalist Taliban have placed on women, barring them from most jobs and public places and prohibiting girls’ education beyond the sixth grade. 

The Taliban have denied allegations Afghan refugees are responsible for security issues facing Pakistan. Islamabad says the Taliban have allowed anti-Pakistan militants to take refuge on Afghan soil and stage cross-border terrorist attacks, charges Kabul rejects. 

Meanwhile, Pakistani officials announced Wednesday they had launched a new phase of scholarships for Afghan students, including girls.  

Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative on Afghanistan, revealed the information through his X social media platform. 

“Glad to launch the third phase of Allama Iqbal scholarships for Afghan students. In the coming five years, 4,500 Afghan students will pursue studies in social and natural sciences in various universities of Pakistan,” Durrani wrote.
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ISLAMABAD — Pakistan has officially authorized its military-run main spy agency to intercept citizens’ phone communications, sparking outcry and concerns from political opponents and advocates of civil liberties. 

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s coalition government has defended the controversial measure, saying the new powers for the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, will enable authorities to track “anyone who misuses the law.” 

Federal Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar told parliament on Tuesday that phone monitoring would be restricted to tracking criminal and terrorist activities. He said the government would ensure it does not violate Pakistanis’ privacy. 

According to the July 8 directive, “The federal government, in the interest of national security and in the apprehension of any offence, is pleased to authorize [ISI] officers … to intercept calls and messages or to trace calls through any telecommunication system.” 

Critics have slammed the notice as unconstitutional and an assault on civil liberties, saying it would enable ISI to further strengthen its alleged hidden role in national politics. 

Politicians, including former Pakistani prime ministers, have long accused the ISI of manipulating or undermining elected governments at the behest of the powerful military, which has staged several coups and governed the country for nearly half of its independent history. 

Lawmakers affiliated with the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan strongly opposed the phone tapping permission given to the ISI and promised to launch a legal challenge against it.  

The independent Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, or HRCP, said in a statement Wednesday it was “deeply concerned” by the government’s decision to give intelligence personnel “carte blanche” to intercept phone calls of any citizen.  

The watchdog decried the measure as a “flagrant violation of citizens’ constitutionally protected rights to liberty, dignity and privacy.”  

The HRCP stated, “Given the poor track record of governments and intelligence agencies alike, this measure will invariably be used to clamp down on political dissent through means of blackmail, harassment, and intimidation.” 

Several members of the Pakistan Bar Council, the country’s highest elected body of lawyers, issued a joint statement dismissing the government’s notice as a “blatant disregard” for the rule of law and judicial independence. 

“Such sweeping powers granted are alarming and unjustified. The issuance of this notification is in direct violation of the fundamental rights guaranteed under the Constitution of Pakistan,” the council said. 

Pakistan’s renowned English-language newspaper Dawn criticized the granting of new powers to ISI as another “example of how extensively constitutional freedoms are being encroached upon” in the country.  

“To be clear, this was already being done, albeit without warrants or legal sanction. It will now continue with legal sanction, but likely still without warrants,” the paper said Wednesday in an editorial.  

“Suppressing a restless public and blocking dissent will only create more frustrations, which may spill over in unforeseen ways,” the editorial cautioned. 
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Beijing — India has no right to carry out development in the area China calls South Tibet, China’s Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday in response to a Reuters report on New Delhi’s plans to speed up hydropower projects in the border state. 

“South Tibet is China’s territory,” a foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement. 

It said India had no right to carry out development there and the establishment of what India calls Arunachal Pradesh on Chinese territory is “illegal and invalid.” 

Reuters reported on Tuesday that India plans to spend $1 billion to expedite the construction of 12 hydropower stations in the northeastern Himalayan state. 

India’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on China’s statement. 

India says its remote state of Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of the country, but China says it is a part of southern Tibet, and has objected to Indian infrastructure projects there. 

Last week, India Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Kazakhstan where the two agreed to intensify efforts to resolve issues along their border. 
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