Month: March 2024

…

your ad here

London — A recent series of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes targeting Russian oil refineries has significantly hurt Moscow’s processing capacity, according to analysts.

The strikes, which come as Kyiv and its allies aim to deprive Russia of a main source of revenue for funding its invasion of Ukraine, have reduced Moscow’s overall oil processing capacity by 370,500 barrels per day, or 7% of its total output, according to calculations by Reuters.

The Ryazan oil refinery was set on fire after a drone attack March 13, forcing the shutdown of two damaged primary oil refining units. The plant, which is located south of Moscow, produces around 317,000 barrels per day, or 5.8% of Russia’s total refined crude oil.

Video footage posted online showed a Ukrainian drone flying through a smoke-filled sky above the refinery, before circling and crashing into the plant, causing a loud explosion.

Another drone attack on March 12 targeted the NORSI refinery near the city of Nizhny Novgorod, some 430 kilometers east of Moscow, knocking out half of the plant’s refining capacity, according to sources quoted by Reuters.

Kyiv claims to have targeted at least seven different refineries. Several are in the region bordering Ukraine. 

“Wars take huge amounts of diesel fuel for tanks, for trucks and so forth. And so that region is directly responsible for diesel for the war,” noted Thomas O’Donnell, an energy and geopolitics analyst with the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.

The attacks on refineries further to the north of Russia are also aimed at reducing Moscow’s revenue from hydrocarbon exports.

“By hitting refineries up there, what happens is the diesel that they export — they were exporting almost as much diesel before as oil — that’s being destroyed, and they have to shift it to oil if they want to make money on that,” O’Donnell told VOA.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the military’s growing drone capabilities in the wake of last week’s attacks.

“In recent weeks, many have already seen that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities and that we can exploit these vulnerabilities with our weapons,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on March 16. “What our own drones can do is truly a long-range Ukrainian capability. Ukraine will now always have its own striking force in the sky.”

The Ukrainian strikes combined with the Western price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil could add to the pressure the Kremlin is facing. Buyers who do not adhere to the cap are prevented from using Western services like insurance and shipping. Since November, Western nations have toughened their monitoring of compliance with the measures.

Russia has used a fleet of “shadow” tankers to move its oil around the world, with much of it travelling through the Baltic Sea or the Arctic. That presents an opportunity for Ukraine’s allies, says analyst O’Donnell.

“The tankers themselves are very old and rather sketchy. They could be stopped in the straits, in the territorial waters between Denmark and Sweden, and be inspected, legally,” he told VOA. “And the inspectors could say, ‘this isn’t good enough insurance,’ or ‘these ships aren’t of proper quality to be carrying this oil,’ and make them turn around. That would be a dramatic intervention.”
…

your ad here

The independent election watchdog group Golos called last week’s Russian balloting an “imitation” of an election. President Vladimir Putin won his reelection bid in a campaign that was never in doubt. Kateryna Besedina has the story, narrated by Anna Rice. VOA footage by Artyom Kokhan.
…

your ad here

…

your ad here

Ramstein, Germany   — Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says the United States remains determined to provide Ukraine with the resources it needs to fight Russian aggression, even as a U.S. Congress has yet to approve new funding for Ukraine.

“The United States will not let Ukraine fail. This coalition will not let Ukraine fail, and the free world will not let Ukraine fail,” Austin said at the start of this month’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Germany.

This is Austin’s first international trip since he was hospitalized on January 1 due to complications from surgery to treat his prostate cancer in late December. The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) brings together officials from more than 50 nations to coordinate their Ukraine efforts.

The U.S. has contributed about $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, with allies and partners also committing more than $44 billion in that time frame.

But the U.S. military has run out of congressionally approved funds for replenishing its weapons stockpiles sent to Ukraine, and leadership in the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives has so far refused to bring new aid for Ukraine up for a vote.

“There isn’t a way that our allies can really combine forces to make up for the lack of U.S. support,” according to a senior defense official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity ahead of the UDCG.

Not only is the U.S. military out of funds for Ukraine, the Defense Department has a funding shortfall from its efforts to provide military support to Ukraine that will grow to least $12 billion by the end of the fiscal year without additional funding from Congress, according to officials. The Pentagon previously acknowledged a funding shortfall of about $10 billion for U.S. military weapons needed to replace those already sent to Ukraine.

In addition to the $10 billion shortage for weapons replenishment, U.S. Army Europe and Africa currently has overspent its budget by about $500 million as it continues to pay for the training of Ukrainians and other Ukraine support mission necessities out of pocket, Col. Martin O’Donnell, the public affairs director for the Army’s forces across those two continents, told VOA.

That shortfall will grow to at least $2 billion by the end of the fiscal year without supplemental funding from Congress, he added.

Ukrainian forces have continued to fight back against Russian forces in the east while inflicting considerable damage to Russian forces in the Black Sea and downing Russian warplanes. However, Moscow— with the help of North Korea and Iran — has drastically ramped up its defense production capacity, forcing Ukraine to retreat from some battles due to ammunition shortages, the senior defense official added.

“Ukraine is heavily outgunned on the battlefield. We’ve received reports of Ukrainian troops rationing or even running out of ammunition on the front lines,” said the official.

Austin on Tuesday thanked members of the group for digging deeper to get vital security assistance to Ukraine, praising the Czech Republic for recently procuring 800,000 artillery shells for Kyiv. He also highlighted Germany, France, Denmark and Sweden for their new contributions.

Last week, the United States announced its first new round of military aid for Ukraine since late December, in what defense officials called an “ad hoc” package made possible through U.S. Army procurement savings.

The military assistance package is valued at up to $300 million and will provide Ukraine with immediate air defense, artillery and anti-tank capabilities, along with more ammunition for HIMARS rocket launchers and 155-mm artillery rounds. But officials say it is unclear if there will be future procurement savings to produce another extraordinary package of aid.

“This is not a sustainable solution for Ukraine. We urgently need congressional approval of a national security supplemental,” the senior defense official said.

The emphasis on ammunition and air defense will likely be as strong as ever during this UDCG meeting. Officials say Ukraine’s forces need interceptors for a variety of their air defense systems, which they have been running out of as they try to defend against wave upon wave of attacks from Russia.

Coalition leadership group

To better organize how the UDCG provides Kyiv with military weapons and equipment, the group’s members have formed capability coalitions to identify ways to increase Kyiv’s efficiency and cut costs.

Defense officials say Secretary Austin will convene a meeting of the leads and co-leads of all the capability coalitions for the first time on Tuesday during a special coalition leadership group session.

Air Force capability is co-led by the United States, Denmark and the Netherlands. The armor capability is co-led by Poland and Italy. The artillery capability is co-led by France and the United States. De-mining is co-led by Lithuania and Iceland. Drone capability is co-led by Latvia and the United Kingdom. Information technology is co-led by Estonia and Luxembourg. Integrated air and missile defense capabilities are co-led by Germany and France, and maritime security is co-led by the United Kingdom and Norway.

Critics like Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University and author of “The New Rules of War,” told VOA the international community is putting its money into expensive military aid that falls short in modern warfare.

“It’s not conventional warfare that beat back Russia’s blitz. It was Ukrainian guerrilla warfare,” he said. “Ukraine was winning the unconventional fight. But then in fall of 2022, they decided to go conventional against Russia, which was strategically silly.”

McFate added that giving Ukraine more conventional war weapons was, in his view, “the strategic definition of insanity.”

Instead, he said Ukraine and its allies needed to think about unconventional ways where they can leverage their power to defeat Russia, such as guerilla operations and more direct actions deep inside Russia to build on the Russian population’s unfavorable opinions of the war.

“Use your conventional forces to hold the line, but don’t invest them to create an offensive which requires a lot more resources,” McFate told VOA.

“M1A1 Abram tanks and F-16 fighter jets … will win tactical victories on the battlefield, but we all know that you can win every battle, yet lose the war, because wars are won on the strategic level, not at the tactical level of warfare,” he said.
…

your ad here

…

your ad here

Jung Pak, the U.S. Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, told VOA on Monday that there have been at least 10 instances where North Korean missiles have been used on the battlefield in Ukraine. Pak told VOA’s Nike Ching that the U.S. still assesses North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not currently planning an imminent attack on Washington’s allies, South Korea and Japan.
…

your ad here

STATE DEPARTMENT — The United States disclosed Monday that North Korea has dispatched at least 10,000 containers loaded with military munitions to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine. This number surpasses the 7,000 containers estimated by the South Korean defense chief earlier in the day.

Jung Pak, the U.S. Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), told VOA on Monday that there have been at least 10 instances where North Korean missiles have been used on the battlefield in Ukraine.

She expressed deep concern about the increasing ties between Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, and the DPRK.

Earlier on Monday, North Korea launched several ballistic missiles into the sea for the first time in two months, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Seoul for the Summit for Democracy hosted by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Despite these “unfortunate” and “concerning” developments, Pak told VOA the U.S. still assesses North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is not currently planning an imminent attack on Washington’s allies, South Korea and Japan.

The following has been edited for brevity and clarity.

VOA: North Korea has fired several ballistic missiles at a time when South Korea is hosting the Summit for Democracy, and a few days after the U.S. and South Korea finished their military exercises. Do you still believe that a direct attack from North Korea against Japan and South Korea is not imminent?

Jung Pak, U.S. Senior Official for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: I still do. Ballistic missile launches are something that the DPRK has been doing: 69 in 2022, several dozen last year. And this is their latest set of launches. And it was unfortunate that they did it when the secretary was in Seoul for the Summit for Democracy.

We still assess that DPRK’s leader, Kim Jong Un, is not looking at an imminent attack or near-term attack. I think Kim Jong Un probably knows what that would likely mean in response. But we are very concerned about the level of activity, weapons advancements, and the increasing alignment with Russia over the past couple of years.

VOA: Just to clarify, does the U.S. not see any signs of North Korea planning some form of lethal military action against South Korea in the coming months?

Pak: We’re always on the lookout for any kind of dangerous activities. But I’ll also point out that these ballistic missile tests, various cruise missile tests, and this hostile rhetoric coming out of the DPRK, are of great concern to us. Regardless, we’re going to keep trying to see where we can engage with the DPRK, because diplomacy is the only way that we can get a sustained peace on the peninsula and discuss the issue of denuclearization.

VOA: Also on Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin for his reelection. Meanwhile, South Korea’s defense chief says North Korea has supplied 7,000 containers filled with munitions to Russia. Can you talk about the closer ties between Moscow and Pyongyang?

Pak: It’s been a very concerning development to have a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council openly flout the Security Council resolutions that it signed up to, along with the rest of the international community, and that they’re engaging in weapons transfers. We know that there have been at least 10,000 containers that have gone from DPRK to Russia. And DPRK is not doing this for free. There are almost certainly things that DPRK wants in return. And we’re concerned about what might be going to the other side.

We also worry about what the DPRK could be learning from Russia’s use of these weapons and ballistic missiles on the battlefield, and how that might embolden and/or help the DPRK even further advance their weapons program. So, this is a really dangerous time.

VOA: Does the U.S. see new evidence that more ballistic missiles provided by North Korea to Russia have been fired at targets in Ukraine since 2024?

Pak: Yes, this is of course concerning to us, that we have a known proliferator in the DPRK selling weapons to Russia, and to be able to conduct their unlawful brutal attack on Ukraine, killing Ukrainian people, destroying Ukraine infrastructure, and just destroying lives. And so, we’re very much concerned about that.

There have been at least 10 instances where the DPRK missiles have been used on the battlefield. So, we’re absolutely concerned about what that means for proliferation going forward, and how this exacerbates the situation.

VOA: Does the U.S. see further evidence that Russia has agreed to and is helping North Korea with nuclear-capable missiles?

Pak: We think the DPRK is probably looking for ballistic missile technologies, or other advanced technologies, or surface-to-air missiles, or armored vehicles. We’ve observed a significant increase in exchanges across military, leadership, economic, and cultural levels. So, it’s pretty apparent that the two sides are getting closer and closer together.

VOA: You have said there would have to be interim steps toward ultimate denuclearization. Can you please elaborate on that? Is having “interim steps” to denuclearizing North Korea an official U.S. government policy?

Pak: Our policy is the same since we rolled out our policy review back in the spring of 2021, which is that we are absolutely looking for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. And so that goal has not wavered for us at all.

When we talk about “interim steps,” we’re making explicit what has always been implicit: which is a complete denuclearization will not occur overnight. So, there are valuable discussions that we can have with the DPRK on reducing the potential for military risk, and other substantive discussions as we work toward complete denuclearization.

VOA: Isn’t it a departure from seeking complete denuclearization?

Pak: It is not a departure. As I mentioned, this is not something that’s going to happen overnight. There are going to have to be substantial discussions that will need to take place.

 
…

your ad here

…

your ad here