Month: June 2024

Washington — The Swiss-hosted Ukraine Peace Summit will take place Saturday and Sunday at the Burgenstock Resort on Lake Lucerne with about 90 countries participating. The Swiss government says the summit aims to “inspire a future peace process” that could eventually involve Russia and build a “just and lasting peace” for Ukraine rooted in international law.

It’s been nearly 28 months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, causing heavy casualties on both sides in a war that has displaced millions of Ukrainians.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the summit to gather international support for his peace plan. The 10 points in Zelenskyy’s “peace formula” include the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea and Russian-occupied areas in eastern and southern Ukraine.

Russia has not been invited to the summit. The Swiss government says there was no invitation because Russia had no intention of attending. Moscow called a peace summit without its participation “futile.”

But Russia is not the only major player skipping the talks.

Who is attending? Who is absent?

China will also be absent from the summit.

China’s Foreign Ministry said at the end of May that Beijing “is hardly able to take part in the meeting” because a peace summit without Russia would not meet China’s expectations. Beijing said the peace conference “should have the recognition of Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.”

China issued its “Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis” in February 2023, touting it as a peace plan. But the 12 principles in the plan were just repeats of Beijing’s long-held positions that critics say are more favorable to Russia.

The United States and Ukraine have urged China to participate many times before.  Zelenskyy, at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month, accused China of pressuring other countries to boycott the peace summit, which Beijing denied.

Kyiv has invited about 160 countries and organizations to attend the summit. The Swiss government said on Monday that about 90 countries — almost half of them from Europe — have confirmed their participation, and that most of the participants are heads of state or government.

Ukraine’s biggest ally, the United States, will send Vice President Kamala Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. President Joe Biden will reportedly miss the summit due to a campaign fundraiser. Zelenskyy said Russian President Vladimir Putin would give Biden’s absence a “standing ovation.”

The White House told the media that the United States is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. In a June speech commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landing, Biden promised “we will not walk away” from Ukraine, connecting Europe’s World War II fight against Nazi invaders to Ukraine’s fight against Russian ones.

Also confirmed are leaders of the European Union, the European Commission, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Spain, Poland, Moldova, Ireland, Iceland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Latvia, Sweden, Croatia, Luxembourg, Cape Verde and Chile.

In addition to its Western allies, Kyiv has focused on inviting nations from the Global South — a term used to describe less-developed countries — and has made efforts to win their support for the summit. Compared with Western countries, most Global South countries are neutral or somewhat pro-Russian on the war.

Winning the support of these countries is key for Ukraine to pressure Russia in future talks. “The more such countries we have on our side … the more Russia will have to deal with this,” Zelenskyy said last month in an interview with AFP.

Turkey confirmed on Wednesday that it would send its foreign minister to the peace summit.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on Wednesday it would send officials of “appropriate level” to the summit, while confirming that it would not be newly reelected Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand have all confirmed their attendance, but with deputy ministerial-level officials instead of top leaders.

Invited countries that have not yet confirmed include Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Pakistan. Although Pakistan and Ukraine have strong defense cooperation, Russia is also an important oil supplier to the country.

What will be discussed?

The Swiss government says the main task of the peace summit is to drive the future peace process, including:

Beginning a dialogue on how to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine under international law and the U.N. Charter.
Promoting consensus on a possible "peace framework."
Determining a roadmap on how to involve both Russia and Ukraine in the process.

 

Ukraine has said the summit will focus on three issues that could win the support of various countries and produce action plans: 

Freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, allowing Ukraine to export grains and protect global food security. 
Agreement on a call to stop the bombing of nuclear energy infrastructure. 
Release of all prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia. The International Criminal Court in March 2023 issued an arrest warrant for Putin over the abductions, which Russia has denied.

 

Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he expects many attendees to remain neutral on the war.

“Zelenskyy will want to turn the conference into an anti-Russian coalition,” he told VOA.  “However, some of the attendees may want to explore end states that are short of what Ukraine wants — for example, some sort of in-place cease-fire.”

Cancian said the peace summit’s final communique will be important because it will indicate whether Zelenskyy has sustained international support or whether “international desires for peace are overwhelming Ukraine’s desire for victory.”

Zelenskyy’s three issues for the summit are part of a 10-point peace plan announced in 2022 that includes the “nonnegotiable” point of restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity.  The territories include not only eastern and southern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia since 2022 but also Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.

Russia has rebuffed Ukraine’s peace proposals, saying it will not give up a single inch of Ukrainian territory it seized, which amounts to about a fifth of Ukraine’s total area.

Many analysts believe that Ukraine’s bargaining power in future negotiations with Russia depends mainly on its momentum in the war.

The Ukrainian army is currently facing pressure on the battlefield, compared to last summer’s offensive, with a shortage of ammunition and manpower and difficulty recruiting soldiers.

Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, said in an article, “There will ultimately be a time for diplomacy, but Ukraine needs to make significant progress militarily for the time to be right.”

But many Ukrainians and their overseas supporters warn that a deal that allows Russia to gobble up large swathes of Ukrainian territory by force would weaken the West and embolden Moscow to take similar actions in the future.

VOA’s Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Seoul, South Korea — When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited eastern Russia in September, a big part of his mission seemed clear: look at as many Russian weapons as possible.  

During his highly publicized multi-day visit, Kim climbed to the cockpit of one of Russia’s most advanced fighter jets, examined nuclear-capable strategic bombers, and toured a warship in Russia’s Pacific Fleet.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin also gave Kim a personal tour of the Vostochny Cosmodrome, the country’s most modern space rocket launch site, where he acknowledged that Russia would help North Korea build satellites. 

Though the interactions underscored growing defense ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, no formal agreements were announced during the meetings, surprising some observers.  

But when Putin soon visits North Korea for the first time in 24 years, there may be more than just handshakes, according to some analysts, who say the two sides have likely been working to cement burgeoning military cooperation. 

“I would expect some sort of formal outcome from the visit, rather than an exchange of pleasantries,” said Alexey Muraviev, who focuses on national security and strategic studies at Australia’s Curtin University. 

Russian authorities have confirmed Putin’s planned visit but have not provided any dates. On Wednesday, South Korean authorities said the visit would likely occur in the next “few days.” 

On Friday, senior U.S. and South Korean diplomats held an emergency phone call about Putin’s impending visit. According to Seoul, both sides warned that Putin’s trip should not result in any violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which ban a wide range of economic and military interaction with Pyongyang. 

Ups and downs 

Russia has for decades been one of North Korea’s most important economic and military supporters, along with China. But ties have sometimes been rocky.  

As recently as 2017, Russia — a permanent, veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council — supported international sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons advancements.  

Since then, Putin and Kim have found reasons to work together, as each wages their own campaign against Western influence. 

After walking away from talks with the United States in 2019, Kim has dramatically expanded his nuclear arsenal, which he says is aimed at deterring the United States and its regional allies.

Putin, meanwhile, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and has since fought Western-backed forces there. 

Shortly after Russia’s invasion, Kim became one of only a handful of world leaders to express explicit support for Putin’s war. 

Independent observers have found North Korean weapons, including missiles, on the Ukrainian battlefield, confirming U.S. government assertions that North Korea is providing Russia with munitions.  

The development is consistent with Russia’s increasing boldness about conducting activities that may explicitly violate U.N. sanctions, which Moscow says it now opposes. 

Putin’s visit 

Putin may still proceed cautiously in Pyongyang. He is not likely to fully or explicitly abandon U.N. sanctions, since Moscow has an interest in portraying itself as a responsible stakeholder that respects international law, according to Muraviev. 

Muraviev said Russia may “raise its middle finger to the West,” however, by continuing to gradually degrade U.N. sanctions against North Korea.  

“Russia is now under even more sanctions than North Korea, so if Russia violates the international sanctions regime, what can Russia suffer from more than what’s already been coming its way as a result of its aggressive actions in Ukraine?” he asked. 

Putin could also use his North Korea trip to underscore further support for North Korea’s satellite program.  

Since Kim’s visit to Russia, North Korea has conducted two satellite launches. Though its most recent launch failed, defense analysts said North Korea’s use of a new type of carrier rocket suggested Russian assistance. 

Though U.N. sanctions remain a significant restraint on Russia-North Korea cooperation, both sides may find economic ways to cooperate, such as sending North Korean laborers to Russia, said Artyom Lukin, a professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University.  

“Russia has never said that it’s going to stop observing UNSC sanctions on North Korea. But you know, there are ways to manage some things like this — just look at China,” Lukin told VOA. “I think Russia might follow the same pattern in some ways.”  

Lukin refused to speculate about how exactly Russia may support North Korea’s weapons programs, but he acknowledged that Russia “seems to be the only major power which can provide some stuff which can make North Korea feel safe.”  

Lukin said it is impossible to know whether expanded Russia-North Korea cooperation will outlast the Ukraine war, but he hinted that longer-term interests were at play.  

“I think it’s fair to call the relationship between Russia and [North Korea] a de facto alignment,” Lukin said. “We don’t know yet whether this alignment will transition to a real alliance or not, but I wouldn’t rule it out.”  
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Kyiv, Ukraine — Kyiv and Moscow staged dozens of drone and missile attacks overnight, officials said Friday, leaving several wounded in Ukraine and damaging a fuel reservoir site in a Russian border region.

The two sides have stepped up cross-border aerial assaults in recent weeks, with Kyiv targeting Russian energy facilities and Moscow launching retaliatory barrages.

Russia said it had downed 87 Ukrainian drones, of which 70 had targeted the southern Rostov region that houses the headquarters of its military operation against Kyiv.

The defense ministry said 70 drones were downed over Rostov, six each over Kursk and Voronezh, and two each over Volgograd and the Belgorod region bordering Ukraine.

The attacks sparked power cuts in several areas of the Rostov region, its governor Vasily Golubev said on social media.

In Voronezh, which borders Ukraine, a fuel reservoir was slightly damaged by falling debris, its regional governor Aleksander Gusev said.

Kyiv meanwhile said Ukrainian air defense systems had downed 24 out of 31 Russian drones and missiles fired overnight.

Six people were wounded in an attack on the front-line town of Selydove in the war-battered Donetsk region, its governor said.

Three people were wounded in a drone attack in the eastern Sumy region and several homes were damaged in the neighboring Kharkiv region.
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US President Joe Biden and leaders of the Group of Seven wealthy democracies are meeting in Italy, underscoring support for Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion and the need for a cease-fire in Gaza. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara is traveling with the president and brings this report from Borgo Egnazia, the G7 summit venue.
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washington — A Russian Israeli freelance journalist who has been labeled a “foreign agent” by Moscow said Wednesday that he was banned from entering Serbia because of alleged security risks.

In a Zoom interview with VOA, Roman Perl said he landed at the airport in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, for a personal visit Saturday. He was kept waiting for about eight hours before being handed an order blocking his entry.

“They gave me a paper stating that there are security risks if I were to be on Serbian soil,” Perl said.

The Russian government designated Perl a “foreign agent” in 2021, a legal term the Kremlin has used since 2012 to enforce its harsh crackdown on news outlets and civil society groups. The law prompted Perl to depart Russia for Israel.

Press freedom experts expressed concern about the incident.

“It’s very worrying because it may confirm that the Serbian authorities are working with the Russian ones,” Jeanne Cavelier, the head of the Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk at Reporters Without Borders, told VOA from Paris. “To go to Serbia could be a great danger for journalists.”

Perl, who has previously produced documentaries for Current Time TV, said he was traveling to Belgrade to visit a friend.

Perl said it was “possible that Russian authorities can, in certain cases, persuade the Serbs to do something the Russian side deems necessary.” But, he added, Serbia may have blocked him over his brief detention in Belgrade in 2023.

While filming a documentary about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at that time, one of his interviewees unfurled the Ukrainian flag near the Russian Embassy, he said.

“Then the members of the gendarmerie approached us and told us that the embassy had called them to remove us from the area,” he said.

Perl was then held in police custody for a few hours before being released without charge.

Serbia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Information and Telecommunications and Border Police did not reply to emails from VOA’s Serbian Service requesting comment. Serbia’s Washington embassy also did not immediately reply to VOA’s email requesting comment.

Although Serbia has a vibrant media landscape, reporters often face political pressure, and impunity for crimes against journalists tends to be the norm, according to press freedom groups.

The threat of impunity in Serbia was highlighted earlier this year. In February, four people who were previously charged with the 1999 murder of prominent Serbian journalist Slavko Curuvija were acquitted in an appeals trial.

Reporters Without Borders ranks Serbia 98th out of 180 countries in terms of press freedom.
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Opponents of the so-called “foreign agent” law that came into effect in Georgia this month say they will not comply with the law’s requirements. The opponents say the measure – which requires organizations that get 20% or more of their funding from abroad to register as foreign agents – reflects similar laws in Russia and is aimed at silencing critics ahead of elections later this year. As Henry Ridgwell reports from Tbilisi, organizations that refuse to comply could face heavy financial penalties.
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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s visit to China marks the latest effort by Ankara to establish itself at the center of a strategic trade route between Europe and China. But analysts say Beijing’s suspicions over Ankara’s support of Chinese Uyghur dissidents remain an obstacle. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
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A flotilla of Russian warships has arrived in Cuban waters to carry out joint maneuvers with Cuban armed forces, a visit that Moscow and Havana assure does not represent a threat to the region. Western governments are watching closely. Jonathan Spier narrates this report by Ricardo Marquina.
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