Pakistan to Probe Military’s Alleged Coercion of Senior Judges

Islamabad — Pakistan’s government announced Thursday that it will set up a special commission to investigate allegations the military-run spy agency has been subjecting federal judges to intimidation, torture and other abuses to secure favorable judicial rulings in political cases.

The charges were listed in a letter written by six of eight members of the Islamabad High Court and sent this week to the Supreme Judicial Council, which governs Pakistan’s judiciary under the leadership of the country’s chief justice, Qazi Faez Isa.

Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar told a news conference that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will discuss the letter at a Cabinet meeting on Friday before formally appointing a commission of inquiry to investigate the accusations.

Tarar said that Sharif made the decision after a Thursday meeting with Chief Justice Isa at the Supreme Court in Islamabad.

“This [letter] is an extremely grave matter, and it should be dealt with very seriously,” the minister stated.

Dated March 25, the letter accused the Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, of meddling in judicial proceedings “to seek a certain outcome.” An army general runs the spy agency, which is notorious for allegedly orchestrating the making or breaking of elected governments at the behest of Pakistan’s powerful military.

“We believe it is imperative to inquire into and determine whether there exists a continuing policy on part of the executive branch of the state, implemented by intelligence operatives who report to the executive branch, to intimidate judges, under threat of coercion or blackmail, to engineer judicial outcomes in politically consequential matters,” the judges wrote.

The document highlighted several instances of attempted coercion and intimidation by ISI officers “to influence the outcome of cases related to jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. In one of the cases, ISI operatives intimidated “friends and relatives” of two judges who had refused to hear a state-instituted case against Khan for lacking merit.

“One of the judges had to be admitted to a hospital due to high blood pressure caused by stress,” the letter said.

It recounted the abduction of a “brother-in-law” of the Islamabad high court judge by alleged ISI operatives. It added that the abductee “was administered electric shocks” and “tortured into making false allegations” on camera against the judge.

Khan, the cricket hero-turned-prime minister, was ousted from power in April 2021 through an opposition parliamentary vote of no-confidence. Khan denounced the move as orchestrated by the military, allegations the institution rejected.

The military ruled Pakistan for more than three decades through coups against elected governments since the country gained independence in 1947.

Former prime ministers, including Khan and Sharif’s elder brother, Nawaz Sharif, have publicly accused army generals of interference in national politics in violation of the constitution.

“We want it to be thoroughly investigated because we had also been its victim,” said Tarar, a senior member of Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling Pakistan Muslim League, or PML-N, party.

Khan’s opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party swiftly rejected the government-proposed commission and demanded that the Supreme Court take up the matter.

“Senior judges incriminating officials working under the government of spying on their private life to pivot away for getting court decisions against former Prime Minister Imran Khan or any other politician, is actually a charge sheet against the government itself,” a PTI statement said.

“Therefore, the formation of an inquiry commission by the incumbent government is nothing but a deflection to avoid a contentious situation,” it said.

The Pakistani military denies it interferes in national politics, but its former chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, acknowledged in a nationally televised speech just days before his retirement in November 2022 that his institution had been meddling in politics for the past 70 years.

In the lead-up to Pakistan’s parliamentary elections last month, the military was constantly accused of influencing judicial proceedings and cracking down on Khan’s party to keep him in jail over controversial convictions.

Eventually, the 71-year-old politician was barred from running in the February 8 vote, and PTI candidates were restricted from winning the majority despite representing the most popular party, according to public surveys.

Khan has been in jail since last August and faces close to 200 lawsuits and prosecutions, ranging from terrorism, sedition, and corruption to murder. He rejects the charges as politically motivated, saying the Pakistani military has orchestrated them to punish him for directly challenging its largely unquestioned powers.

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White House Reveals Urgency of Warning Russians of Potential Terror Attack

white house — Duty to warn. It is the obligation that the United States says it takes upon itself if the intelligence community is able to identify an impending threat to a particular country.

The U.S. acted on this duty just two weeks before the deadly attack near Moscow claimed by Islamic State. U.S. officials had warned Russia that extremists had imminent plans for such an attack, but the Kremlin brushed off the warning as mere blackmail and efforts to destabilize Russian society. John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, spoke to VOA about the terrorist attack.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

VOA: First of all, let’s jump into fresh accusations coming from Russia today. Russia’s FSB [intelligence] chief accused the U.K., the U.S. and Ukraine of being behind the Moscow attack on the concert hall. What’s your response to that?

Kirby: Nonsense.

VOA: The United States has exercised its duty to warn the Russian counterparts of an incoming threat. Why was it important for the American side to warn Russians given that they are waging the war against Ukraine and they turned into the world pariah?

Kirby: Because it was going to be innocent Russian people that were going to fall victim and in fact, did fall victim and we take our duty to warn very, very seriously. We have all kinds of problems with the way Mr. [Vladimir] Putin is leading and governing, if you want to call it that, and we certainly have significant concerns about the continued reckless and violent attacks on Ukrainian people and Ukrainian infrastructure.

But we don’t have a beef with the Russian people. And we had information that they were going to put Russian people, innocent Russians at risk from a terrorist threat. So you bet we informed Russian authorities as appropriate as we would do for any country.

VOA: I’m wondering what their response looked like. Was it a thank you note? Or did they say, “It’s nonsense, leave it to yourself?”

Kirby: I won’t characterize what the other side did with the information that we provided. We provided useful, we believe, valuable information about what we thought was an imminent terrorist attack. We also warned Americans about staying away from public places like concert halls. So we were very direct with our Russian counterparts appropriately to make sure that they had as much useful information as possible. What they did with it, or didn’t do with it, they’d have to speak to.

VOA: But can you confirm they received it?

Kirby: We know that they received the information and that they understood the information. Now what they did with it, again, is for them to speak to.

VOA: Who is responsible for this attack according to American intelligence? Is it ISIS? What was the motive behind the attack?

Kirby: ISIS is responsible for this attack.

VOA: ISIS-K?

Kirby: ISIS is responsible for this attack.

VOA: Do you know the motive here?

Kirby: ISIS claimed responsibility themselves. They all have the goals. Again, I’m not going to get into too much into intelligence matters. ISIS is responsible for this attack.

VOA: Moving on to Ukraine. What are the chances of Congress voting for the supplemental [budget to assist Ukraine] once legislators return from their break?

Kirby: Well, we hope that they will. I can’t predict what the House will do. It is going to be up to Speaker [Mike] Johnson and this is a moment for him to show some leadership. We know that if you were to put that on the floor it would get voted on resoundingly.

Ukraine and Ukrainian battlefield commanders would have the weapons and the capabilities that they need to better defend themselves, particularly in the East there in the Donbas where Russian forces continue to try to make progress pushing west out of Avdiivka. So it’s past time for us to be able to provide additional security assistance to Ukraine, it’s past time for that supplemental to get passed. And so we strongly urge Speaker Johnson to put it before a vote and let’s get moving.

VOA: Speaker Johnson, as reported by The Hill, may contemplate the possibility of providing Ukraine with a loan or another form of lend-lease arrangement to supply them with weapons, with the expectation of repayment. Would this administration be open to this option as an alternative to the supplemental?

Kirby: Our focus is on getting that supplemental passed. And as I’ve said before, and the speaker knows this, if he puts it on the floor, it’ll get approved. It has the votes. That’s the best way to support Ukraine.

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Somali Government Says at Least 80 al-Shabab Militants Killed in Attacks

Washington — The Somali government said Thursday its soldiers — backed by international partners and local clan militias — killed about 80 al-Shabab militants and wounded dozens more in three operations in the country’s southern and central regions. 

A government official indicated the attacks stopped a terrorist operation. “The militants were planning spectacular attacks to coincide with an important date in the Ramadan calendar, the 17th day of the fast,” said the government’s deputy information minister, Abdirahman Yusuf Adala. 

There was no independent confirmation of the death toll, reported by Adala and Somalia’s defense ministry, and no immediate comment from al-Shabab through its spokesperson or websites. 

The Ministry of Information said the Somali National Army carried out a coordinated series of operations across the regional states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle and Southwest. 

A press release says the operations were carried out with the support of international security partners. Countries helping the Somali government include the United States, Turkey and members of the African Union. 

Government officials said the first military operation was conducted in an area near the city of Harardhere, in Mudug region. 

In an interview with VOA Somali, Harardhere District Commissioner Mohamed Yusuf Kulmiye said that al-Shabab members were gathering at the site of the operation called Farah Adan Sands, when the Somali National Army launched a surprise attack. 

“We received an intelligence tip that they were remobilizing and plotting an attack on the town, and we immediately responded to neutralize the threat. We killed more than 40 militants and lost 10 of our soldiers in the battle,” said Kulmiye. 

The Somali defense ministry says the second operation took place in Fiqaay forest, 15 kilometers from the Daru Nicma area in the Middle Shabelle region. 

A statement from the defense ministry says that more than 35 members of al-Shabab were killed in this area, and that battlewagons and other militant vehicles were destroyed. 

In the third operation, the Somali government said its military targeted areas under the Wajid district in the Bakool region, in southwest Somalia, killing six members of al-Shabab. 

The 24-hour military campaign against al-Shabab came on the heels of a deadly attack by the militants on a Somali military base in the Lower Shabelle region, in the country’s southwest. 

Security officials, who asked for anonymity, told VOA at least 17 government soldiers were killed during the attack on the Busley base, which was briefly occupied by the attackers. 

Armed fighters from al-Shabab battled their way to the facility using suicide car bombs, one Somali military official told the Reuters news agency. He declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

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Russia Vetoes Monitoring of UN Sanctions Against North Korea

UNITED NATIONS — Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution on Thursday, effectively abolishing the monitoring of United Nations sanctions against North Korea by a panel of U.N. experts. 

The Security Council resolution sponsored by the United States would have extended the mandate of the panel for a year, but Russia’s veto will halt its operations. 

The vote in the 15-member council was 13 in favor, Russia against and China abstaining. 

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, told the council before the vote that Western nations are trying to “strangle” North Korea and that sanctions have proven “irrelevant” and “detached from reality” in reining in its nuclear program. 

The resolution does not alter the sanctions, which remain in force.

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South Africans Mark 30 Years of Freedom Ahead of Pivotal Poll

It’s an important year for South Africa: Not only is the country marking the 30th anniversary of its democracy, 2024 is also an election year. Observers say the polls will be fiercely contested. Kate Bartlett has the story from Johannesburg. Camera: Zaheer Cassim.

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Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal’s Custody Extended Until April 1 in Graft Case 

NEW DELHI — An Indian court extended the custody of opposition leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal until April 1 on Thursday in a graft case related to the national capital territory’s liquor policy, local media said. 

India’s financial crime-fighting agency arrested Kejriwal last week in connection with corruption allegations related to the city’s liquor policy and he was remanded to its custody until Thursday, weeks before India begins voting in general elections on April 19.  

Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) says the case is fabricated and politically motivated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government and his Bharatiya Janata Party deny political interference and say law enforcement agencies are doing their job.  

All the main leaders of AAP were already imprisoned in the case before Kejriwal was arrested.  

Terming his arrest a “political conspiracy”, Kejriwal, 55, told reporters outside court on Thursday that “the public will respond to this”. Speaking in court later, he said the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which has arrested him, aims to crush AAP. 

ED lawyers told the court that they needed Kejriwal in custody for another seven days as he was “deliberately not cooperating” and needed to be interrogated further.  

Kejriwal’s arrest has sparked protests in the national capital and the nearby northern state of Punjab, which is also governed by AAP, over the last few days.  

Dozens of AAP supporters were detained on Tuesday as they attempted to march to Modi’s residence to demand his release. Some AAP workers protesting and distributing leaflets to commuters outside a busy metro station in central Delhi were also detained on Thursday.  

“This is the time when we campaign (for elections), our leaders are being put in prison, arrested … they (federal government) are stopping us from campaigning, (but) nobody can stop us from winning,” a protester told news agency ANI.  

A joint rally of the ‘INDIA’ alliance, consisting of more than two dozen political parties including AAP, is planned in the capital on Sunday to protest against the arrest.  

The issue has also drawn international attention with the U.S. and Germany calling for a “fair” and “impartial” trial in the case, causing New Delhi to tell Washington and Berlin that India’s legal processes are based on an independent judiciary and that they should stay away from its internal affairs. 

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UN: Security in Eastern Congo Deteriorating, Rebel Group Expanding Territory

UNITED NATIONS — Security in Congo’s mineral-rich east has deteriorated since recent elections, with a rebel group allegedly linked to neighboring Rwanda making “significant advances and expanding its territory,” the U.N. special envoy for the conflict-wracked African nation said Wednesday.

Bintou Keita told the U.N. Security Council this has created “an even more disastrous humanitarian situation, with internal displacement reaching unparalleled numbers.”

Last month, the United States told Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo that they “must walk back from the brink of war,” the sharpest warning yet of a looming conflict.

U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood again condemned “the aggressive military incursion” into eastern Congo by the M23 rebel group and the Rwandan Defense Force and attacks including on U.N. peacekeepers.

He called on the leaders of Rwanda and Congo “to make the decision to pursue peace — for the sake of their people, the region and the world.”

Wood described M23 as “a group which has perpetrated appalling human rights abuses against civilians, including sexual and gender-based violence.”

He called the international community’s failure to condemn the actions of Rwanda, which is a major troop contributor to U.N. peacekeeping forces, “dismaying” and said “the U.N. should reevaluate Rwanda’s credibility as a constructive partner in peacekeeping.”

The U.S. State Department last month called for the withdrawal of Rwanda’s troops and surface-to-air missile systems from eastern Congo and criticized M23, calling it a “Rwanda-backed” armed group.

The Rwandan Foreign Ministry said last month that the country’s troops are defending Rwandan territory as Congo carries out a “dramatic military build-up” near the border.

The ministry’s statement said Rwanda’s national security is threatened by the presence in Congo of an armed group whose members include alleged perpetrators of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda during which more than 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutus who tried to protect them were killed.

The rebel group, known by its initials FDLR, “is fully integrated into” the Congolese army, the statement said. Although Rwanda has long cited a threat posed by FLDR, authorities there had never admitted to a military presence in eastern Congo.

Wood said the U.S. recognizes the FDLR “is a continuing threat to the Congolese people and a security threat to Rwanda that must be addressed.”

At Wednesday’s council meeting the Congolese and Rwandan ambassadors again went after each other.

Congolese Ambassador Zenon Ngay Mukongo called the M23 and Rwandan forces a “coalition of the axis of evil.”

He said a meeting of heads of state is planned for April and Congo is seeking lasting peace throughout the country and that it “will not accept window-dressing arrangements aimed at perpetuating insecurity and confusion” which encourages the M23 and Rwanda’s “shameless exploitation of strategic minerals” in eastern Congo.

Rwandan Ambassador Ernest Rwamucyo reiterated his government’s serious concerns about the FDLR and called for Congo to resolve the security issues involving many rebel groups themselves.

“We should also raise awareness about the dangers of genocide, the ideology, which has spilled over into the DRC,” the initials of Congo’s official name, the Democratic Republic of Congo, he said.

Keita, the U.N. envoy, told the council that mediation by Angola between the countries has resumed.

In response to a question afterward by reporters about Wednesday’s confrontation between the ambassadors, she said, she strongly believes this mediation and other efforts to reduce tensions should be supported “in spite of the displeasure that we saw” in the council.

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Death Toll in Moscow Concert Hall Attack Rises to 143; 80 Others Still Hospitalized 

moscow — The death toll from last week’s Moscow concert hall attack rose to 143, Russian authorities said Wednesday. About 80 other people wounded in the siege by gunmen remain hospitalized. 

The Friday night massacre in Crocus City Hall, a sprawling shopping and entertainment venue on the northwestern outskirts of Moscow, was the deadliest extremist attack on Russian soil in nearly two decades. At least four gunmen toting automatic rifles shot at thousands of concertgoers and set the venue on fire. 

An affiliate of the Islamic State group claimed responsibility for the violence, while U.S. intelligence said it had information confirming the group was responsible. French President Emmanuel Macron said France also has intelligence pointing to “an IS entity” as responsible for the attack. 

The updated fatalities from Russia’s Emergencies Ministry didn’t state the number of wounded, but Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said earlier Wednesday that 80 people were in hospitals and another 205 had sought medical treatment from the attack. 

Russia’s Federal Security Service, or the FSB, said it had arrested 11 people the day after the attack, including four suspected gunmen. The four men, identified as Tajik nationals, appeared in a Moscow court on Sunday on terrorism charges and showed signs of severe beatings. One appeared to be barely conscious during the hearing. 

Russian officials, however, have insisted that Ukraine and the West had a role, which Kyiv vehemently denies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of trying to drum up fervor as his forces fight in Ukraine. 

FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov also has alleged, without providing evidence, that Western spy agencies could have been involved. He repeated Putin’s claim that the four gunmen were trying to escape to Ukraine when they were arrested, casting it as proof of Kyiv’s alleged involvement. 

 

But that assertion was undercut by Belarus’ authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, who said Tuesday that the suspects were headed for Ukraine because they feared tight controls on the Belarus border. 

The Islamic State group, which lost much of its territory following Russia’s military action in Syria after 2015, has long targeted Russia. In October 2015, a bomb planted by IS downed a Russian jetliner over the Sinai desert, killing all 224 people aboard, most of them Russian vacationers returning from Egypt. 

The group, which operates mainly in Syria and Iraq but also in Afghanistan and Africa, also has claimed several attacks in Russia’s volatile Caucasus and other regions in past years. It has recruited fighters from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union. 

The United States warned Moscow two weeks before the massacre about a possible imminent attack. Three days before the tragedy, Putin denounced the U.S. Embassy’s notice on March 7 urging Americans to avoid crowds in Moscow, including concerts, calling it an attempt to frighten Russians and “blackmail” the Kremlin before the Russian presidential election. 

Bortnikov said Russia was thankful for the warning but described it as very general.

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Schools in Kenya Adopt Environment Education to Promote Conservation

With global biodiversity loss at crisis levels, nearly 100 schools bordering the Mau Forest complex in Kenya have adopted a tailored syllabus that teaches conservation as part of its regular curriculum. Juma Majanga reports from Mau Eburu, Kenya.

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Senegal Results Show Large Win for Opponent Faye in Presidential Poll

Dakar, Senegal — Anti-establishment figure Bassirou Diomaye Faye has comfortably won the Senegalese presidential election with 54.28% of votes in the first round, official provisional results showed Wednesday.

He placed well ahead of the governing coalition’s candidate, former prime minister Amadou Ba, who garnered 35.79%.

The victory for Faye, who was only freed from prison 10 days before the election, still has to be validated by Senegal’s top constitutional body, which could happen in a few days.

Faye, 44, who has said he wants a “break” with the current political system, is set to become the youngest president in Senegal’s history.

It would be the first time since independence from France in 1960 that an opponent has won in the first round.

Aliou Mamadou Dia, who came third out of 19 candidates officially on the list, won just 2.8% of the vote, according to figures read out at the Dakar court by the president of the national vote counting commission, Amady Diouf.

While his victory in Sunday’s vote was already clear after the publication of unofficial partial results, the margin of Faye’s win was confirmed by the vote counting commission, which falls under the judiciary.

The turnout of 61.30% was less than in 2019 when outgoing President Macky Sall won a second term in the first-round, but more than in 2012.

The announcement of the official provisional results seems to clear the way for a handover of power between Sall and his successor.

The political crisis triggered by Sall’s last-minute postponement of the vote, and the subsequently rushed electoral timetable, cast doubt on whether the handover could take place before the incumbent’s term officially ends on April 2.

But a swift handover now seems feasible in the West African nation, which prides itself on its stability and democratic principles in a coup-hit region, provided no appeals are made.

Presidential candidates have 72 hours after the results are announced by the commission to lodge an appeal with the Constitutional Council.

The Constitution states that if no appeals are made in this period, “the Council shall immediately proclaim the final results of the ballot.”

But if an objection is made, the Council has five days to rule and could, in theory, annul the election.

Faye, who has never before held elected office, is set to become the fifth president of the West African country of around 18 million people.

His fellow presidential candidates, and Sall, have recognized his victory.

Sunday’s election was preceded by three years of tension and deadly unrest, with Senegal plunged into a fresh political crisis in February when Sall decided to delay the presidential poll.

Dozens have been killed and hundreds arrested since 2021, with the country’s democratic credentials coming under scrutiny.

Faye himself was detained for months before his release in the middle of the election campaign.

International observers hailed the smooth running of Sunday’s vote.

The African Union’s observation mission commended the “political and democratic maturity of the Senegalese people (and) the generally peaceful political atmosphere of the presidential election,”

Faye has promised to restore national “sovereignty” and implement a program of “left-wing pan-Africanism.”

WATCH: Senegal’s President-Elect Vows to Fight Corruption, Rebuild Institutions

His election could herald a profound overhaul of Senegal’s institutions.

On Monday he pledged “to govern with humility, with transparency, and to fight corruption at all levels.”

He said he would prioritize “national reconciliation,” “rebuilding institutions” and “significantly reducing the cost of living.”

But he also sought to reassure foreign partners.

Senegal “will remain a friendly country and a sure and reliable ally for any partner that engages with us in virtuous, respectful and mutually productive cooperation,” he pledged.

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Can Afghan Taliban Fight Pakistani Military?

ISLAMABAD — Two and a half years into their reign, the Afghan Taliban have cemented their ultra-conservative rule across the war-torn country but have yet to turn their fighting force into a traditional military. 

VOA spoke to analysts who say the former insurgent force does not need to pattern itself after a standard military to effectively counter a mounting security threat from an Islamic State affiliate and tackle growing tensions with neighboring Pakistan. 

According to an annual analysis of global militaries by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Afghan Taliban have 150,000 active fighters. Military chief Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat told Reuters last year that the regime plans to increase the force by another 50,000, but he did not specify the time frame for doing so. 

Since coming to power, the Taliban’s de facto government has not publicly released a defense budget. To formalize their defense forces, they have created three battalions under Special Forces and eight infantry corps.  

The military has a variety of armored vehicles, towed artillery, three light aircraft and 14 helicopters, including U.S.-made Black Hawks that it seized after the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) fell apart amid the chaotic withdrawal of international forces in 2021.  

The Taliban also have a few Russian attack helicopters from ANDSF. 

Capability 

Although U.S. forces left nearly $7 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan, experts assess the Taliban’s ability to operate some of the sophisticated machinery as limited. 

“Without maintenance contracts [and] materials from foreign suppliers who originally equipped the ANDSF, though, it is unlikely they can really use a lot of materials at scale,” Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told VOA. 

Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told VOA that the Taliban face challenges in training their forces similar to those the ANDSF faced.  

“They are still dealing with a largely uneducated population that has to be taught sometimes basic competencies of soldiering,” said Weinstein, a former U.S. Marine who served in Afghanistan in 2012.   

Insurgency mode 

Analysts say despite establishing its rule after the end of the 20-year U.S.-led war, the Afghan Taliban are still in insurgency mode. 

“It allowed individual units to, sort of at the tactical level, operate in a semiautonomous way,” said Weinstein, adding that the former insurgents still have “cohesion and decent command and control over their fighters.” 

“The biggest strength of the Taliban is their popularity,” said Graeme Smith, a senior consultant at the International Crisis Group.   

Smith, who worked as a political affairs officer for the United Nations in Afghanistan between 2015 and 2018, said Taliban forces should not be analyzed like a traditional military, as their numbers change based on local needs. 

“During the years of U.S. [and] NATO troop presence, unpublished NATO studies concluded that the vast majority of Taliban fought within 1 kilometer of their own homes. That is to say, locals were going out and shooting at NATO troops, and then going home for lunch and having a home-cooked meal, and then going back out again in the afternoon and shooting some more NATO troops,” Smith explained. 

The easy availability of fighters and places to hide, Smith said, give Taliban forces a significant advantage. 

Security threats 

While the Afghan Taliban have effectively crushed armed resistance, Islamic State Khorasan Province, also known as IS-K or ISKP, poses a significant internal security threat. 

“It’s an insurgency which is both malignant and persistent, and it poses an ideological challenge to the Taliban,” said Mir. 

The Taliban have killed senior IS-K commanders, eliminated the group’s cells and kept them from holding territory inside Afghanistan. 

“So, that’s a testament to the competence of the Taliban security forces,” Weinstein said. “They seem to have good intelligence on ISKP leaders and where the ISKP cells are located, and they seem to be effective in keeping them at bay,” he added. 

Externally, the Taliban’s Afghanistan faces a threat from Pakistan — the only neighbor Kabul has a border dispute with. Pakistan’s military has conducted strikes twice inside Afghan territory against alleged hideouts since the Taliban returned to power — once in April 2022, and this year on March 18.  

Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of giving a haven to anti-Pakistan militants, a charge the de facto rulers reject.  

Kabul retaliated to this month’s strike by targeting several Pakistani military posts along the border. In a statement condemning Pakistan’s action, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid warned of “very bad consequences, which will be out of Pakistan’s control,” if Pakistan launches more cross-border attacks. 

Fighting Pakistan 

Experts VOA spoke to agree that the Taliban do not have the firepower to take on one of the world’s largest, nuclear-armed militaries — but say that Kabul can engage in unconventional tactics against Pakistan. 

“They can push back by even doing less to rein in the TTP [Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan] or perhaps, giving the TTP carte blanche to engage in even greater attacks [inside Pakistan],” Weinstein said, adding that the Taliban see the TTP as an “insurance policy against the Pakistani state.” 

Allowing cross-border terrorism would “certainly raise a lot of international concern,” Mir warned. 

As tensions grow between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Smith said Kabul could also scuttle important regional projects. One such project, he said, is the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project, popularly known as CASA-1000, which will bring electricity from Central Asia via Afghanistan to energy-hungry Pakistan. 

The Afghan Taliban could also hinder the land route Pakistan uses for trade with Central Asia, experts say. 

A Pakistani Ministry of Commerce delegation met with Afghan counterparts this week in Kabul as bilateral trade drops amid frequent border skirmishes and closures. 

Experts agree the chances of the Afghan Taliban getting into a conventional war with a neighbor are slim — but caution the de facto rulers of Afghanistan have a formidable doctrine of asymmetric warfare involving suicide bombers and contingents of locals willing to drop shovels and grab guns when called upon.

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