Pentagon Downplays $7B in US Military Equipment Left in Afghanistan

The fall of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan gave Taliban fighters access to more than $7 billion worth of American military equipment, according to data in a report submitted this week to U.S. lawmakers and confirmed by the Pentagon.

The findings, first reported by CNN, shed light on the extent to which Washington sought to build, support and maintain the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) as a counterbalance to the Taliban and terror groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State Khorasan.

The report also details the bounty of weaponry and equipment awaiting Taliban officials once the last U.S. troops left Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul on August 30, 2021, nearly two decades after the first U.S. forces arrived.

According to the report and to the Pentagon, the just more than $7 billion of U.S. military equipment is what was left of $18.6 billion worth of weapons and other equipment provided to the ANDSF from 2005 through August 2021.

It includes aircraft, vehicles, munitions, guns and communication equipment, as well as other gear, “in varying states of repair,” according to Defense Department spokesperson Army Major Rob Lodewick, who emphasized that the military hardware and gear was the property of the now defunct Afghan government.

“The $7.12 billion figure cited in the department’s recent report to Congress corresponds to ANDSF equipment and not U.S. military equipment used by our forces,” Lodewick said in a statement. “Nearly all equipment used by U.S. military forces in Afghanistan was either retrograded or destroyed prior to our withdrawal.”

Top U.S. defense officials have repeatedly faced criticism from some high-profile lawmakers who have called on them to account for the U.S. pullout as well as the collapse of the U.S.-backed government.

“We all witnessed a horror of the president’s own making,” Senator Jim Inhofe, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past September, calling the way events played out “avoidable.”

“Everything that happened was foreseen,” Inhofe said at the time. “President Biden and his advisers didn’t listen to the combat commander. He didn’t listen to Congress, and he failed to anticipate what all of us knew would happen.”

Defense officials, however, sought on Thursday to defend the military’s actions and downplay the significance of the $7 billion in U.S. equipment and weaponry left behind, some of which had been brandished publicly by Taliban fighters.

“We’re not naive. … Obviously, that’s happening,” a U.S. defense official told VOA, speaking on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the report, which has yet to be released to the public.

But the official cautioned that the equipment being used by the Taliban is not the same as that used by U.S. and allied forces before they left Afghanistan.

“It’s not state-of the-art stuff,” the defense official said. “Everything that we provided to the Afghan forces was not on the same level as ours or those of our allies.”

 

The official also said that even the higher-end equipment was unlikely to give Taliban forces much of a boost.

“The high-end equipment, the aircraft, the UAS [Unmanned Aerial Systems], the precision munitions for the aircraft … that’s very dependent on maintenance,” the official said, noting that many of those systems “suffered very poor readiness rates” even when U.S. forces and contractors were on the ground helping Afghan forces.

“A lot of this stuff is likely to quickly become nonoperational,” the official added.

 

Pentagon officials also told VOA that only a sliver of U.S.-owned and -operated equipment was left behind when the last U.S. troops departed Afghanistan, estimating its value at just more than $150 million before it was destroyed or otherwise rendered inoperable.

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US, EU Warn Against Giving In to Russian ‘Gas Blackmail’

The United States and the European Union have warned against giving in to what they called Russian “blackmail” over gas supplies to Europe.

Russia, which supplies about 40% of Europe’s gas needs, had demanded that what it called “unfriendly” European countries pay their gas bills in rubles — seen as a way to prop up the currency in the face of Western sanctions on Russian banks, including its central bank. Some EU states have set up Russian bank accounts to try to work around the sanctions.

President Joe Biden said Thursday that the U.S. was helping its European allies to diversify gas supplies.

“We will not let Russia intimidate or blackmail their way out of these sanctions. We will not allow them to use their oil and gas to avoid consequences for their aggression. We’re working with other nations like Korea, Japan, Qatar and others to support our effort to help European allies threatened by Russia with gas blackmail and their energy needs in other ways,” Biden told reporters at the White House.

“Aggression will not win. Threats will not win. This is just another reminder of the imperative for Europe and the world to move more and more of our power needs to clean energy,” he said.

 

Cutoff

Russian state-owned gas giant Gazprom cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday after they refused to pay in rubles. The two EU member states insist that the contracts stipulate payment in euros.

“This time, Russia has pushed the border of imperialism — gas imperialism — another step further. This is a direct attack on Poland,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Thursday during a visit to the Zambrow compressor station, which receives gas from Russia.

“Thanks to our actions, Poland will not need Russian gas at all from the fall. But we will also deal with this blackmail, with this gun at the head, so that the Poles will not feel it,” Morawiecki added.

 

Visiting the devastated town of Borodyanka in Ukraine on Thursday, Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said his country could cope without Russian gas.

“Bulgaria will not be indifferent to this tragedy. We are in a firm position, as part of the democratic world, as part of the European Union, that we will stand by Ukraine. Because this is not just the battle of Ukraine, this is a civil choice of which side we want to stand with,” Petkov told reporters.

Diversifying supplies

Poland and Bulgaria had declined to extend their gas contracts with Gazprom beyond this year. Both are diversifying their supplies of pipeline and liquified natural gas (LNG), said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at Independent Chemical & Energy Market Intelligence.

“Given they were ending those contracts, they had already begun to invest in new infrastructure, or developing infrastructure, or sign new pipeline supply contracts or LNG contracts to backfill those volumes that would have been lost by the beginning of 2023 anyway. So, Poland’s going to get a new pipeline directly connecting it to Norway. There’s a second pipeline between Greece and Bulgaria, which will specifically carry Azerbaijani gas,” Marzec-Manser told VOA.

“Polish storage is incredibly high at the moment, and therefore it almost looks like they were prepared that something like this might happen,” he said.

 

Serious sanctions

Many other European states continue to import Russian gas. Several European gas companies — including those from Germany, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia — have, at Moscow’s insistence, opened accounts with Gazprom Bank in Switzerland. The contracts are paid in euros but immediately converted into rubles.

Visiting Tokyo on Thursday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that his country could not risk losing Russian gas supplies in the short term.

“Any interruption would have consequences for the economic situation. That is clear, and the government is also very clear about that,” Scholz told reporters.

“We know that it is a challenge that many European countries, including Germany, are dependent on imports of fossil resources from Russia. And that’s why we set out very early, even long before the outbreak of this war, to analyze this situation in concrete terms and to derive decisions from it.

“That has put us in a position where we can now stop imports of [Russian] coal by the autumn. That will put us in a position to reduce and replace imports of coal bit by bit. And the same will happen for gas. But that is a process that will require more time,” Scholz said.

EU warning

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned members against giving in to Russia.

“Companies with such contracts should not accede to the Russian demands. This would be a breach of the sanctions. So, a high risk for the companies,” she said Wednesday.

It’s not yet clear if those gas companies will face penalties for routing payments via Gazprom Bank. Marzec-Manser said Russia faces a dilemma.

“Had a major German or Italian gas customer with contracts not just ending at the end of this year but, say, contracts running through to 2035, had they not agreed to do the switch in terms of their banking setup, would a cutoff have happened to them? Because the revenue impact on Gazprom would have been immense,” he said.

Russia’s reputation also has taken a hit, Marzec-Manser added.

“Until about a year ago, the reputation from a gas market perspective was considered to be a reliable one,” he said. “That’s since long gone, even before the Ukraine war, I would say.”

European nations say they are making preparations in case Russia turns off the gas taps. But analysts say such a move also would cost the Kremlin hundreds of billions of dollars a year in lost revenue.

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Twin Blasts in Northern Afghanistan Kill 9

Explosions ripped through two separate passenger vehicles in northern Afghanistan on Thursday, killing at least nine people and injuring 13 others.  

 

The bombings took place within minutes of each other in different parts of Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of Balkh province, said Mohammad Asif Waziri, a provincial police spokesman. 

 

“The targets appear to be Shiite passengers,” Waziri said.  

The Islamic State terrorist group’s regional affiliate, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), claimed responsibility for the bomb blasts. It is the latest in a series of bombings to rattle Afghanistan this month, killing dozens of people and injuring scores of others. 

 

Last week, a bomb exploded at a Shiite Muslim mosque in Mazar-e-Sharif, killing 12 worshippers and wounding about 90 others. A day later, a bomb exploded inside a packed mosque in northeastern Kunduz province during Friday prayers, killing 33 people and injuring nearly 50 others.  

 

While ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the mosque bombing in Mazar-e-Sharif, no one has yet claimed the Kunduz attack.  

 

ISIS-K has stepped up its attacks against the Hazara community since the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan in August 2021. The United States and coalition troops withdrew from the country later that month, ending their almost 20 years involvement in the war with the Taliban.  

 

Up to 10% of the country’s estimated 40 million people are Afghan Hazara. The community is considered the most persecuted minority group in Afghanistan and is discriminated against by many in the Sunni-majority country. 

 

ISIS-K is a Sunni-based militant group like the Islamist Taliban, but the two are bitter foes.  

 

The Taliban reiterated in a statement this week that their security forces have almost eliminated the ISIS-K threat in Afghanistan, saying efforts are ongoing to dismantle the terror group’s few remaining hideouts. 

 

But domestic and foreign critics remain skeptical about those claims. They note that IS militants have demonstrated their ability to strike at will anywhere in the country and pose a key challenge for the Taliban to maintain national security and address terrorism-related concerns of Afghanistan’s neighbors, as well as the world at large.  

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse. 

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Somali Lawmakers Facing Tough Task of Electing President 

Adan Nuur Madobe made a comeback as speaker of Parliament Wednesday night following his ouster from the same seat in 2010. His election was seen as a victory for the opposition, which marshaled forces to defeat Hassan Abdi Nur, who had the backing of outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed.

The election was expected to take place Wednesday afternoon, but the process dragged into the night following a dispute over who oversaw security at the election site, a fortified compound at Mogadishu’s main airport.

A joint session of the upper and lower houses of Parliament is now slated to elect a new president in the coming weeks. But the road to that milestone is a difficult one.

Professor Mohamed Muse Matan, a lecturer at the University of Somalia, noted that once it was finally held, the election for speaker proceeded peacefully.

So far, Matan said, no one has criticized how the election took place. He also said he had seen no challenges to the election of the speaker. He said that in the political arena, each party must congratulate the speaker, even if its members are not happy with the election results.

But Matan said the process for electing Somalia’s next president was filled with uncertainty.

“I do not want to rush into predicting who will win,” Matan said, “because we do not still see anyone campaigning, we do not see the manifestation of everyone, we do not even know how many people are running for the presidency.”

Re-election run expected

Mohamed, also known as Farmaajo, is expected to run for re-election. His likely opponents including two former presidents, a former prime minister and the current leader of the Puntland region.

Professor Abdiwahab Abdisamad, chairman of the Nairobi-based Institute for Horn of Africa Strategic Studies, said there were advantages to re-electing Farmaajo.

“I think in terms of stability and security of the country, if the current administration wins the elections … I think it is good for the security apparatus because for the last five years, the security organs in the country are getting their salaries, they are well-organized, they are well-trained. He built the capacity of the security,” Abdisamad said.

At the same time, Farmaajo, once Somalia’s most liked president, has lost the support of many people because of his failure to defeat militant group al-Shabab and for allegedly deploying Somali soldiers to Ethiopia to fight Tigrayan rebels.

An attempt last year by the lower house to extend Farmaajo’s term for another two years was also widely unpopular. Parliament backtracked in the face of international pressure and the prospect of war between the government and opposition-backed forces.

Although Somalia witnessed a peaceful transfer of power when Farmaajo was elected in 2017, the buildup of tensions in recent months has left many worried that duplicating that feat will be a challenging task.

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Ugandan Media Persecuted for Airing Critical Views of First Family, Rights Group Says

Press freedom supporters are condemning Ugandan authorities for persecuting media that air critical views of President Yoweri Museveni and his family. Ugandan security forces in March raided Digitalk TV, an online station, and arrested and charged its reporters with cyber stalking and offensive communication. The charges could see them facing up to seven years in prison, as Halima Athumani reports for World Press Freedom Day on May 3, from Kampala, Uganda.
Videographer: Mukasa Francis

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Scholz Says Germany Seeks Closer Ties With Indo-Pacific

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Tokyo on Thursday that his country wanted to strengthen ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region that have the same values, and to work together to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. 

“My trip is a clear political signal that Germany and the European Union will continue and intensify their engagement with the Indo-Pacific region,” Scholz said after meeting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. 

Kishida said he and Scholz agreed that as members of the Group of Seven industrialized nations they share a responsibility to work together to end Russian aggression and restore peace, stability and international order as quickly as possible. 

“The Ukraine crisis shakes the foundation of the international order not only in Europe but also in Asia. Any attempts to change the status quo must be avoided, especially in East Asia,” Kishida said at a joint news conference. 

“If we do not clearly show [to Russia] that this kind of unilateral change to the status quo by force and recklessness has a high cost, it will give the wrong message to Asia,” he said. 

On his first trip to Tokyo as chancellor, Scholz said both Germany and Japan are defenders of the “rules-based international order,” the principles of the U.N. Charter and the defense of universal human rights. Scholz said he also wanted to come to Japan because Tokyo will take over as chair of the G-7 after Germany. 

Japanese sanctions

Japan has imposed sanctions against Russia in line with other G-7 countries and has provided support for Ukraine out of concern that Russia’s invasion could embolden China and intensify tensions in East Asia. China has long sought to take control of independently governed Taiwan, and it has threatened to do so by force if necessary. 

Japan has also provided Ukraine with nonlethal defense equipment in an exception to its policy against exporting military materials to nations in conflict. 

Germany had initially refused to send any offensive weapons to Ukraine and later balked at sending heavy equipment such as armored vehicles. 

Scholz’s government, under pressure domestically and from allies, recently reversed that policy and agreed to send offensive weapons and allow Ukraine to purchase German armaments, and to support weapons swaps with allies who in turn are sending heavy equipment to Ukraine. 

Japan hopes to work closely with Germany as strategic partners on “various challenges that the international community faces, including responses to China,” Kishida said. 

Scholz said Germany and Japan also agreed to work together to strengthen economic cooperation in areas such as 5G technologies and economic security. 

He said ensuring that supply chains become less dependent on individual countries is “a task that is more relevant than ever,” in a reference to China.

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Greece Blocks Turkey From NATO Air Drill 

It was billed as a promising breakthrough — Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meeting last month and agreeing to try to resolve their countries’ age-old differences, keeping, at least, a lid on tensions as the conflict in Ukraine rages.

But on Thursday, as armed Turkish jets streamed into Greek airspace, conducting more than 125 unauthorized flights within 24 hours, Athens retaliated.

Greece revoked Turkey’s planned participation in a May 9, Greece-hosted NATO air drill known as “Tiger Meet,” saying Turkey was “neither an ally, nor a friend.” Greece also suspended confidence-building negotiations due to begin between Greek and Turkish diplomats next month.

The snub came as the Greek Foreign Ministry summoned Ankara’s top envoy late Wednesday to protest the record number of violations over the Aegean Sea. He was called in again on Thursday as Turkish warplanes buzzed over a rash of popular holiday islands, including Rhodes and Samos, staging dangerous aerial dogfights.

Near-daily patrols

Greece and Turkey, both members of NATO, have long been at odds over air and sea rights in the oil- and minerals-rich Aegean.

The disagreement has resulted in near-daily air force patrols and interception missions, mostly in disputed airspace around Greek islands that Turkey has repeatedly claimed as its own, denying any sort of violation.

Pundits, politicians and military officials here are now troubled by the sudden increase in dangerous overflights, especially after last month’s promising meeting between Mitsotakis and Erdogan.

Andreas Loverdos, a lawmaker and member of the Greek Foreign Affairs Committee, said nothing in reality had changed vis-a-vis Turkey’s stance toward Greece. He said Turkey had eased off what he called its provocative stance because it was trying to mend relations with Washington and play a constructive role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

As that has not panned out, Loverdos said, Turkey is reverting to past patterns of behavior.

Turkey’s ties with the U.S. government have been strained since punitive sanctions were imposed on Ankara during the Trump administration for Turkey’s purchase of a missile system from Russia, a breach of NATO rules.

Ankara is now seeking to purchase combat F-16 aircraft from the United States — a bid that Democratic U.S. Representative Frank Pallone and more than 50 other lawmakers have urged the Biden administration to reject, citing what they say is Erdogan’s lack of commitment to NATO and his “vast human rights abuses.”

Whether the purchase will go through remains unclear.

More war games expected

Until then, and as long as Turkey’s relations remain troubled with the West, military experts here warn that Greece should be on high alert for more war games in contested areas in the Aegean.

Retired Greek Air Force Commander Evangelos Georgousis said the Turkish flights weren’t new but hadn’t previously been seen in such large numbers. The fear, he said, is that anything can go wrong. The only thing missing in these midair chases, Georgousis said, is the act of pressing the button to unlock missiles against the enemy target. Everything else is as real and warlike as can be, he said, and it’s dangerous.

Contesting claims to the Aegean brought Greece and Turkey to a dangerous standoff more than two decades ago, forcing the United States to intervene to pull back both sides from the brink of war.

Greece has urged Ankara to take the dispute to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, but Turkey has repeatedly refused.

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Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Surging in Africa Due to COVID-19 Disruptions

The World Health Organization warns that vaccine-preventable diseases are spreading across the African continent because routine immunizations against killer diseases have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Tens of millions of people have missed out on routine immunization services. That not only puts their lives at risk from potentially deadly diseases but creates an environment in which killer diseases can thrive and spread. 

Benido Impouma, director for communicable and noncommunicable diseases in the World Health Organization’s regional office for Africa, said the pandemic has put a huge strain on health systems. It has impaired routine immunization services in many African countries and forced the suspension of vaccination drives. 

Over the past year, he said, outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases have increased across the continent. 

“For instance, between January and March of this year, around 17,000 cases of measles were recorded. This is a 400 percent increase compared with the same period last year,” Impouma said. “Twenty-four countries in our region confirmed outbreaks of a variant of polio last year, which is four times more than in 2020.” 

He noted that outbreaks of other vaccine-preventable diseases, such as yellow fever, also are surging. 

The World Health Organization and UNICEF recently issued a report warning of a heightened risk of vaccine-preventable diseases. They attribute it in large part to increasing inequalities in access to vaccines due to pandemic-related disruptions. 

They expressed particular concern about a worldwide spike in measles cases, which have increased by 79 percent in the first two months of this year. They noted that most cases were reported in Africa and in eastern Mediterranean regions. 

WHO is working to improve immunization coverage and protection for children, Impouma said, adding that WHO and its partners are supporting African countries to carry out catch-up routine vaccination campaigns. 

“More than 30 African countries implemented at least one routine catch-up immunization campaign in the second half of last year,” he said. “And this year, countries are showing progress, with measles and yellow fever campaigns starting again. Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan have reinstated measles campaigns, which is good news.” 

However, COVID-19 news is not as promising. WHO said that this week new COVID-19 cases and deaths on the continent have increased for the first time after a decline of more than two months for cases and one month for deaths. 

The latest recorded figures put the number of cases at 11.6 million, including nearly 253,000 deaths. 

 

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France 24 TV, RFI Radio Say Mali Has Banned Them for Good

The ruling junta in Mali has definitively banned French broadcasters RFI and France 24 after alleging that the Sahel nation’s army caried out abuses, the radio and television channels said Wednesday.

France Medias Monde, the state-owned parent company of RFI and France 24, said it had received notification during the day from Mali’s communication authority.

“France Medias Monde strongly contests the definitive decision to suspend,” the two broadcasters, the company said in a statement.

It called the move “unfounded and arbitrary,” adding it would use all possible means of recourse to get the decision reversed.

The French government had called Mali’s initial temporary suspension of the French media channels on March 17 a grave attack on liberty of the press.  

RFI (Radio France International) and France 24 cover African news extensively and have a strong following in the former French colony.

The broadcast ban comes after diplomatic relations between Mali and its former colonial power France plunged to their lowest point in years amid disputes over democracy and the alleged presence of Russia-linked paramilitaries in the country.  

Mali expelled the French ambassador in January.

The junta, which seized power in August 2020, said there had been “false accusations” in a report in mid-March in which RFI aired comments from alleged victims of abuse by the army and shadowy Russian private-security group Wagner.

Mali’s junta also has accused Human Rights Watch (HRW) and Michelle Bachelet, the U.N. human rights chief, of making false allegations against the government.  

An impoverished nation of 21 million people, Mali has over the past decade been wracked by Islamist violence.  

Thousands of soldiers and civilians have been killed and hundreds of thousands of people forced to flee their homes.

Additionally, the under-equipped army often has been accused of committing abuses during the brutal conflict. The army-led interim government regularly rejects such accusations.

The junta’s growing friendship with Russia has worsened friction with France, a traditional ally.

Paris last month announced the impending withdrawal of thousands of troops deployed in Mali under France’s anti-jihadist mission in the Sahel.

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Is it Possible to Make a Deal with Putin?

As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its third month, questions have swirled about whether a negotiated solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin is possible.

Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist who previously worked with the U.S. State Department, dismisses any speculation that Putin is unstable and therefore impossible to deal with.

“He’s not crazy. He’s a rational actor, and in his mind, he knows exactly what he’s doing,” says Dekleva. “He is an extremely savvy, highly intelligent and ruthless longtime leader who’s now been in power for over 22 years.”

Dekleva, a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations in Texas, has studied the former Russian intelligence agent for 20 years. He describes Putin as single-minded, resilient, a master manipulator of people, and hyperfocused, due to his training as a KGB officer.

Putin, however, is 69 and his recent actions could suggest a less flexible style of leadership that is sometimes seen in aging leaders.

“You’re more rigid. You see things more in black and white, and you have less tolerance for nuance and ambiguity,” Dekleva says. “That’s certainly a possibility, although I don’t know that we can say that just from his current decision-making regarding the Ukraine war. That being said, he appears to be very, very deliberately focused and a bit of a man in a hurry.”

The key to negotiating with someone like Putin, Dekleva says, is to try to understand his mindset and be empathetic, even when you don’t agree with him.

For Jason Pack, a senior analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation in Italy, reaching an agreement with Putin requires decisive action.

“I do think we need to be extremely bold, right up to the threshold of things that we might think would cause a big escalation … like engaging in bold cyberwarfare,” Pack says. “Like, ‘Hey, we’re going to make the lights go off in St. Petersburg for two hours and then negotiate after that. … The next time, it’s going to be two days if you don’t meet our demands.'”

Pack says Putin had every reason to believe the West would back down if he invaded Ukraine, despite the West having “more discretionary military and economic power.”

He points to Russia’s 2008 incursion in Georgia, formerly a part of the Soviet Union and now an independent republic, which resulted in Russia occupying 20% of that country. And Putin seized the southern region of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

“He seems to respect force, and he doesn’t respect just talking. I don’t even think that he thought that we would do the sanctions that were threatened if he invaded, because it was like, ‘This is just talk, talk, talk,'” says Pack, adding that he doesn’t believe Putin will take catastrophic nuclear action.

“He wants to live. He’s terrified of COVID. He’s 20 feet (6 meters) away from his advisers (in pictures). So, I don’t think that there is a risk of his blowing the world up so long as we stick to the rules of there not being NATO personnel fighting in Ukraine.”

Putin is adamantly against Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, joining NATO. He has complained about the West edging too close to Russian borders.

“His primary goal was to take Kyiv, and he didn’t use tactical nuclear (weapons) to try to take Kyiv,” Pack says. “He’s been exposed to be a degree of the paper tiger. He thought we would back down. He wants to live. He doesn’t want to be overthrown inside Russia. He has had horrible coordination with his generals. They had no battle plans.”

Dekleva says negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine must simultaneously address Ukraine’s security needs and sovereignty while addressing Putin’s perception of threat in terms of the expansion of NATO to Russian borders. He thinks a very senior third- party mediator that both Putin and the West can trust — possibly from China, India or Israel — could be useful to the process. And he’s very clear on what should not happen.

“Name-calling — calling Putin crazy or calling him a thug, or a murderer, or a war criminal — by senior leaders in the West, including (U.S.) President (Joe) Biden, is not helpful,” Dekleva says. “That’s not how you get your negotiating partner to come to the table.”

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Former US Marine Back Home After Prisoner Swap with Russia

After nearly three years in a Russian prison, former U.S. Marine Trevor Reed is back in the United States on Thursday after a swap with a Russian held in the U.S. 

 

Reed had been convicted of endangering the lives of two Moscow police officers while drunk. The U.S. called the trial a “theater of the absurd.” 

 

Reed arrived in his native Texas and will spend a few days in a military hospital to monitor his health. 

 

A Texas congressman posted photos on Twitter of Reed’s arrival.  

 

“It’s been (a) very exciting day for The Reed family. Trevor is back in the USA,” Reed’s mother, Paula Reed, tweeted early Thursday. 

 

Reed was exchanged for Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko, who had been convicted of trying to smuggle drugs into the U.S. He had been arrested by U.S. special forces in Liberia in 2010. 

 

The official swap reportedly took place at an airport in Turkey. 

 

“The American plane pulled up next to the Russian plane, and they walked both prisoners across at the same time, like you see in the movies,” said Trevor’s father, Joey Reed. 

 

The U.S. is also trying to secure the release of another American, former Marine Paul Whelan, who was sentenced to 16 years in June 2020 for espionage.  

Some information in this report comes from Reuters. 

 

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Attack on Chinese Workers in Pakistan Challenges New Government

This week’s suicide attack in Karachi that killed three Chinese nationals poses a challenge for Pakistan’s new leaders at a time when they may be looking to improve ties with Beijing.

A separatist group, the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), claimed responsibility for the blast, saying a lone female suicide bomber had carried it out. Pakistan’s government quickly said it would find and punish those responsible.

“I strongly condemn this cowardly act of terrorism. The perpetrators will surely be brought to justice,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on Twitter.

 

But Pakistan has been trying for more than a decade to halt separatist militants’ attacks on Chinese workers. The militants have targeted Pakistani and Chinese workers involved in development projects in Baluchistan, accusing them of extracting resources without compensating local people. In 2019, Washington designated the BLA as a terrorist organization.

As China’s investments in Pakistan have grown, particularly since the creation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) creating links from Pakistani ports to Chinese road networks, relations with Beijing have only grown more important.

Analysts expect the Sharif administration to strengthen economic and political relations with the Chinese government, noting that it was under Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister from 2013 to 2017 and the brother of the incumbent, that the CPEC was solidified.

“We can certainly expect to see a renewed focus and a center of attention on CPEC because it aligns so well with the core sort of goals of the PML [Pakistan Muslim League] and both Sharif brothers,” said Madiha Afzal, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, a research group in Washington.

Other analysts such as former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani, who served from 2008 to 2011 under then-Prime Minister Yousuf Reza Gilani, said there is room to improve the China-Pakistan relationship following the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who lost a no-confidence motion in parliament this month.

“It is important to note that Mr. Imran Khan was a particularly inept leader, and he also was prone to a lot of erratic and whimsical decision-making,” said Haqqani, who is now director of South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute, a research group in Washington.

“The Chinese did not like that, so there was a problem of style that affected certain aspects of the Sino-Pakistan relationship. A more experienced and more calm-demeanored political leadership will take away that part of that irritant out of the relationship,” Haqqani said.

Role of the military

Other analysts, including Christine Fair of Georgetown University in Washington, say regardless of who is in power, Pakistan’s army largely sets the country’s foreign and economic policies. And because the army prioritizes its relationship with China, so will the country’s civilian leaders.

“I don’t think they have a choice, because you can’t really rely upon [the] U.S. weapons supply,” Fair said. “You just can’t, because the United States is kind of fed up with Pakistan. Plus, the Pakistan army loves to use its relationship with China as a way of leveraging its importance vis-a-vis the United States.”

As evidence of the military’s influence, analyst Madiha Afzal pointed out that before Khan’s election in 2018, his party had called for scrutinizing or renegotiating the terms of Beijing’s loans for building the economic corridor.

“It never happened because Pakistan’s military’s relationship with China was sort of a constant and remained strong, and Khan eventually sort of came around to that side of things as well,” Afzal said.

Now, both the military and the country’s civilian leaders have a common challenge in the separatist group responsible for this week’s attack. A spokesman for BLA warned of “harsher” attacks unless China halts its projects in the country.

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Ukraine Hosts UN Chief Guterres, Urges Russian Oil Embargo

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is hosting U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for talks Thursday, while Ukraine calls for an embargo on Russian energy supplies and U.S. President Joe Biden prepares a proposal for military, economic and humanitarian aid.    

Guterres toured areas outside Kyiv, including Bucha, where the bodies of civilians were found after Russian forces withdrew from the area.  Those discoveries prompted calls for investigations of possible war crimes, and Guterres on Thursday encouraged Russia to cooperate with probes by the International Criminal Court. 

“I fully support the ICC and I appeal to the Russian Federation to accept, to cooperate with the ICC,” Guterres said.  “But when we talk about war crimes, we cannot forget that the worst of crimes is war itself.” 

The U.N. chief said after arriving in Ukraine that he wanted to “expand humanitarian support and secure the evacuation of civilians from conflict zones,” topics that were part of his talks earlier this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.        

“The sooner this war ends, the better — for the sake of Ukraine, Russia, and the world,” Guterres tweeted.           

Russian energy

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Thursday “it’s a matter of time” before an embargo is imposed on Russia’s key energy industry.

While European nations have taken steps to reduce or eliminate their reliance on Russian oil and gas, replacing those supplies and potential economic hits at home have made some leaders express caution about how quickly to proceed down that path as Ukrainian officials called for an embargo.

Podolyak tweeted that avoiding Russian energy supplies is both a moral issue and a matter of Russia ceasing “to be a reliable and predictable partner in the eyes of the world.”

“Switching to alternative supply channels quickly will be expensive, but not as expensive as not doing so,” Podolyak tweeted. “In the medium term, Moscow will face total economic and political isolation. As a result, poverty, the scale of which Russia has not seen yet.”

His comments came a day after Russia’s Gazprom halted natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria.

Gazprom said Wednesday that Poland and Bulgaria had not met Russia’s demand to pay for natural gas in rubles. The company said four unnamed natural gas buyers have paid Russia in rubles, and 10 European companies have created ruble accounts to make payments in the Russian currency, Bloomberg News reported.

The White House said Wednesday this move by Russia was anticipated.

“That is why we, of course, had been in touch with Europe, including with these countries … over the last 24 hours, with leaders in Poland and Bulgaria,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters. “We have been working for some time now, for months with partners around the world to diversify natural gas supply to Europe in anticipation of, and to also address, near-term needs and replace volumes that would otherwise come from Russia.”

Polish President Andrzej Duda said the Russian gas cutoff violated “basic legal principles,” while Bulgarian Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov said gas was being used as a “political and economic weapon.”

U.S. aid

The White House said Biden is scheduled to deliver remarks Thursday “on support for Ukrainians defending their country and their freedom against Russia’s brutal war.”

Psaki told reporters Wednesday that Biden would send to Congress this week a proposed package similar in focus to those already carried out to help Ukraine, with security, humanitarian and economic assistance to “help address a range of the needs the Ukrainians have.”

The U.S. Congress could also send “lend-lease” legislation further freeing up the flow of weapons to Biden’s desk for a signature as early as the end of this week.

The U.S. Department of Defense said Wednesday more than half of the 90 U.S. howitzers have reached Ukraine, and a first round of training on the long-range weapons has already wrapped up.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby cited the ongoing flow of weapons and aid in the success Ukraine has maintained in the battle against Putin’s unprovoked invasion.

“He’s concentrating all his firing forces in the east and in the south of Ukraine. So, he has achieved none of his strategic objectives,” Kirby said. “I think that’s proof right there that the kinds of systems that are being provided to Ukraine have had an effect … on their self-defense needs.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against Western intervention in Ukraine as he spoke to lawmakers in St. Petersburg on Wednesday.

“If someone intends to intervene in the ongoing events from the outside, and create strategic threats for Russia that are unacceptable to us, they should know that our retaliatory strikes will be lightning-fast,” Putin said. “We have all the tools for this, things no one else can boast of having now. And we will not boast, we will use them if necessary. And I want everyone to know that.”

Support reaches $8 billion

Military support for Ukraine, either pledged or provided already by NATO allies, has reached $8 billion, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to consider applying to be members of the NATO military alliance, and Stoltenberg said if they do choose to take that step, the process could be completed quickly.

“It is, of course, for Finland and Sweden to decide whether they would like to apply for membership in NATO or not. But if they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden would be welcomed with open arms to NATO,” Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels.

Russia has expressed opposition to prospective NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, saying if they do join, Russia will deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles to Kaliningrad.

“This is fundamentally about the right of every nation in Europe to decide its own future,” Stoltenberg said. “So when Russia tries to threaten, to intimidate Finland and Sweden from not applying, it just demonstrates how Russia is not respecting the basic right of every nation to choose its own path.”

National security correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report. Some information came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.

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France’s Election Offers Lessons to US Ahead of Midterms  

This week’s French presidential contest boiled down to a debate between nationalism and globalism — and globalism prevailed in the victory of President Emmanuel Macron, an ally of President Joe Biden. What can the U.S. learn from this as Biden’s party faces elections? VOA’s Anita Powell reports.

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At UN, Calls for Accountability for Atrocities in Ukraine

Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister said Wednesday that the list of war crimes committed by Russian troops in her country grows daily and accountability is critical.

“The city of Mariupol has turned into dust,” Emine Dzhaparova told an informal meeting of the U.N. Security Council. “Thousands of civilians live in blockade without water, electricity, communications and basic things that all people need.”

She said that new mass graves and buried bodies are found daily in Ukrainian cities and that Russian soldiers carry out crimes on civilians, including torture, rape and murder.

“Russia must be [held] accountable for its crimes as a state,” she said, adding that the individuals who carried out the crimes must be prosecuted, too.

“The one who raped a girl, kicking out her teeth; who killed a man riding a bicycle; who fusilladed a queue of people waiting for bread; who shot humanitarian convoys, maternity hospitals, ambulances, cars,” Dzhaparova said. “These people have names and faces, and they are to be brought to criminal liability.”

8,000 investigations

Ukraine Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova said from Kyiv that her office has opened 8,000 cases to probe allegations of violations and the list continues to grow.

Several governments have offered Ukraine assistance in carrying out investigations and documenting abuses.

In an unprecedented move, more than 40 states have referred the situation in Ukraine to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has made two trips to Ukraine and has an investigative team on the ground that includes experts, lawyers and anthropologists.

He said he sent three communications to Russia but had not received a reply. He urged Moscow to cooperate with his office, saying if it wants to expose accusations against it as fake, the best way to do so is to hold them up to scrutiny.

“My office and myself have no political agenda other than to get to the truth,” he assured member states.

But Russia’s representative dismissed the ICC as an institution susceptible to political pressure and financial leverage exerted by such countries as the United States and Britain.

“ICC is merely a political instrument and has nothing in common with justice,” Russian legal adviser Sergey Leonidchenko said. He said Russia would have its own meeting on accountability with its own briefers on May 6.

In terms of new crimes, the U.S. representative said Washington now had credible information that a Russian military unit operating near the eastern city of Donetsk had executed Ukrainians who were attempting to surrender, rather than take them into custody.

‘Deeply disturbing pattern’

Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice Beth Van Schaack said that, if true, this would violate a core principle of war prohibiting the summary execution of civilians who surrender.

“These images and reports suggest that these atrocities are not the act of rogue units or individuals; rather, they reveal a deeply disturbing pattern of systematic abuse across all areas where Russia’s forces are engaged,” she said.

Russia has a record of abuses, including in Syria, where its troops have backed President Bashar al-Assad’s forces since 2015.

“The pattern of abuse we are seeing in Ukraine is consistent with well-documented grave crimes by Russian forces in other places such as Syria,” Human Rights Watch’s Ida Sawyer said from Kyiv. “The lack of accountability for those violations has regrettably opened the door for what is occurring today.”

Human rights lawyer and activist Amal Clooney said the horrific scenes from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha reminded her of the 2012 massacre of 108 civilians, many of them children, in the northwestern Syrian town of Houla.

“This Security Council met in an emergency session to decry the killings, and people thought it would be a turning point for accountability. It wasn’t,” Clooney said. “And now the same Russian general known as “the butcher,” who mounted a brutal attack on civilians in Aleppo, is massacring innocent families in Mariupol.”

She urged the diplomats not to grow numb to the violence as the war grinds on and merely call for justice that is never delivered.

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Ukraine Invasion Forces Ankara to Rebalance Its Relations With Moscow

Ukraine’s sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, puts new scrutiny on Ankara’s policy of banning most Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. Analysts suggest the Ukraine conflict is changing the balance of power in Turkish-Russian relations. For VOA, Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul. Camera: VOA/Courtesy

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