One of the key components of empathy is what scientists call facial mimicry. It seems complicated, but is as simple as smiling when someone smiles at you, and that conveys a lot of information. Scientists have always thought that animals who do it, humans included, are a small group, but maybe not. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports.
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Month: April 2019
Sudanese Political Cartoonist Seeks Lasting Change with Iconic Images
A week after the Sudanese military ousted Omar al-Bashir as president and seized control of the country, protesters continue to demand representation and civilian rule.
Thousands of kilometers away, Khalid Albaih monitors the events unfolding in Khartoum, the capital, with rapt attention. He scrolls through his social media feeds for updates, and consults a network of contacts about the latest developments.
Since December, the protests in Sudan have swelled into an uprising that toppled Bashir, who had held power for nearly three decades.
The military is now in charge, but protesters want a civilian government, leading to a series of high-profile resignations and ongoing tension.
Within the chaos, Albaih looks for decisive moments. Then, he draws them, capturing complex events with simple designs that highlight key actors and their motives.
‘Deja vu’
A Sudanese political cartoonist, Albaih has for years lived in Doha, Qatar, where he witnessed the Arab Spring, a series of political revolts, unfold. He sees parallels between Sudan’s uprising and the changes that gripped countries such as Egypt and Libya.
“For me, this is a deja vu,” Albaih told VOA.
Albaih sees himself as a kind of interlocutor.
“I’m trying to, as much as possible, push for what’s happening in Sudan — translate as much as possible — to make sure that the people around the world understand the facts from our point of view,” Albaih said.
Born in Bucharest, Albaih never worked for a newspaper. But his cartoons and commentaries have drawn a large following online. As the Arab Spring unfolded, he created a cartoon a day for eight years.
Now he’s aiming to tell the world what’s happening in his home country, in the hope that knowledge translates into action.
But convulsions in Sudan have felt more personal. “It hurts. It’s very hard to get your heart broken twice,” Albaih said, referring to the rise of military rule in the wake of Bashir’s ouster.
In one recent cartoon, Albaih depicts former Defense Minister Awad Ibn Auf, who has since stepped down, addressing the nation from an oversized chair. A host of other top officials, including Bashir, peek from behind, signifying a revolving door of military and government insiders.
“It’s the happiness being kidnapped,” Albaih said.
‘We need entertainment, not news’
Albaih sees his cartoons as a way to grab attention in a media-saturated world that craves jarring images.
“I think the Western media have the fetish of images, of visuals,” he said.
Albaih plays to that desire, doing what he can to get play in international outlets in the hope they, in turn, raise awareness of people’s struggles.
“It’s fortunate, but it’s very unfortunate, that we live in the day and age of this viral culture,” he said.
In such a world, it’s often the most shocking imagery that prompts action. “It’s really sad that, as humans, we need entertainment, not news,” he added.
Albaih cited the example of Aylan Kurdi, a 3-year-old Syrian refugee who drowned off the coast of Turkey when the boat he was in capsized. Images of Kurdi’s lifeless body on a Turkish beach shocked the world and brought a new level of international scrutiny to a years-long crisis that had, by then, displaced 4 million people.
Audiences seem to be craving archetypes, according to Albaih — not just victims, but also saviors.
“The Western media have always looked for heroes in this part of the world. So they always make one person into this god or goddess, as if this is the hope for this ruined region. You know, we have one person, who’s going to save it.”
But Albaih hopes people see past a single image to the deeper meanings it represents.
Photographs of individual suffering, strife or triumph can personify an issue and captivate an audience, but they can’t tell the full story — stories like Kurdi’s 5-year-old brother, who drowned on the same boat en route to Greece. Or the millions of other Syrians whose lives have been upended since the country’s civil war broke out in 2011.
‘No action’
In another cartoon, Albaih depicts a woman holding back an oversized version of Salah Abdallah Gosh, Sudan’s former head of intelligence, with just her finger, while Gosh attempts to crush her with his foot.
The protester, Alaa Salah, 22, led chants in Khartoum earlier this month.
Albaih based his work on Lana Haroun’s photograph of Salah standing on the roof of a car, high above a group of protesters, an image that’s become an embodiment of the role women are playing in Sudan’s peaceful uprising.
Gosh led the regime’s crackdown on protesters. Days after Albaih published his cartoon, the intelligence official resigned.
But Albaih can’t say whether his work has the impact he hopes for. Too often, temporary concern hasn’t translated into long-term results, he said.
“I’ve seen so many powerful images — but nothing, no action,” Albaih said.
He’s also hesitant to compare his efforts to people on the ground who have put their well-being at stake for a greater cause.
“It’s very hard when people are, you know, sacrificing their lives to say that my cartoons had an impact.”
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Sudan’s Protest Leaders to Announce Civilian Council
Leaders of Sudan’s ongoing protest have stepped up pressure on the transitional military council that this month replaced ousted President Omar al-Bashir. The protesters have announced plans to form their own civilian council to persuade Sudan’s military to give up power.
As thousands more protesters joined a sit-in Friday outside Sudan’s Defense Ministry, the main protest group — the Sudanese Professionals Association — said it would form a civilian council to replace the military one.
The SPA, which began collecting names of suggested council members on Thursday, issued a written statement saying nominees would be announced in coming days.
The statement added that a civilian presidential council would be formed and a transitional legislative council would include 40% women.
As Friday prayers were held at the protest site, an imam called for no foreign interference in Sudan and for the military council to preserve the country’s prestige.
Protesters at the sit-in said they were determined to bring about a civilian leadership promptly — not by the military’s declared two-year transition.
Protester Ibrahim Nogod said the upcoming announcement could mean a new government, but worries persist. Some fear the chosen government won’t be accepted by the military council, Nogod said, or that the government would end up simply a new front for a group of ruling parties.
Protester Mahmoud Assan said the people are waiting for a smooth transfer of power.
“Today we had Friday prayers and all speakers agree that the government must be a qualified government,” he said.
South Sudan’s offer
Reuters news agency on Wednesday reported that South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, had traveled to Khartoum to meet the new leadership. Kiir’s office said he offered to mediate talks between Sudan’s military and the protesters.
It was not clear if Sudan’s military leaders were prepared to accept the offer from their former adversary. South Sudan split from Sudan after decades of civil war, taking with it almost all of Khartoum’s oil wealth.
U.S. support
The U.S. on Thursday backed the protesters’ demands, urging Sudan’s military to step aside and allow a transition to a civilian-led government.
State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said the will of the Sudanese people is clear, and it is time to move toward a transitional government that is inclusive and respectful of human rights and the rule of law.
A senior State Department official said U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Makila James will visit Khartoum this weekend to meet with Sudanese leaders.
The U.S. labels Sudan as a state sponsor of terrorism, but a State Department official said none of the members of the military council were under U.S. sanctions.
Sudan’s protests began in December because of fuel and food shortages, which led to price hikes and calls for Bashir to step down. A military coup then removed Bashir, who had been in power for three decades.
The protesters have staged a sit-in at army headquarters since April 6, refusing to leave even after the military ousted Bashir.
The International Criminal Court has warrants for Bashir on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity in Sudan’s Darfur region.The former president’s family and Sudanese officials say he was moved this week to a federal prison, and two of his brothers were also detained.
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Ukraine Readying for Sunday’s Presidential Election
Last minute preparations are underway for voters in the Eastern European country of Ukraine to select their next president on Sunday.
They will choose between President Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a standup comic who plays a fictional president in a popular television series.
The 41-year-old Zelenskiy, who has no political experience, is heavily favored to defeat Poroshenko, polls show. Zelenskiy’s once long-shot bid for the presidency gained momentum amid voter frustration over corruption, economic woes and an ongoing conflict in the country’s east.
Poroshenko tried to energize his supporters at a rally Friday in Kiev’s Independence Square, just hours before the candidates square off in a nationally televised debate in the city’s Olympic Stadium. The 51-year-old president told several thousand supporters Zelenskiy would be exploited by Russian President Vladimir Putin if he were elected and said a Zelenskiy win would derail Ukraine’s chances of integrating into the European Union (EU).
Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and the country has since been entangled in a war with Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country.
Zelenskiy has shunned traditional political campaigning, largely avoiding media interviews and touring the country with his comedy show instead. When he has spoken with the media, he has advocated for closer ties with the EU and NATO. He has also called for greater efforts to reintegrate the rebels in the east into the country.
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China’s Political System Helps Advance Its Artificial Intelligence
Recent technological advances demonstrated by China have started an intense debate on whether it is set to take a lead in the field of artificial intelligence, or AI, which has extensive business and military applications.
U.S. concerns about China’s AI advances have also influenced, in part, the ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Both the United States and European Union are taking measures to stop information leaks that are reportedly helping Chinese companies at the expense of Western business.
But many analysts are saying that Chinese corporate and defense-related research in areas like AI and 5G wireless technologies can thrive on their own even if information from the Western world is shut off. China is already reportedly leading in several segments of businesses like autonomous vehicles, facial recognition and certain kinds of drones.
The U.S.-based Allen Institute of Artificial Intelligence recently captured attention when it reported that China is a close second after the United States when it comes to producing frequently-cited research papers on artificial intelligence. The U.S. contribution is 29%, and China accounts for 26% of such papers.
“The U.S. still is ahead in AI development capabilities, but the gap between the U.S. and China is closing rapidly because of the significant new AI investments in China,” Bart Selman, president-elect of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, a professional organization, told VOA.
Political advantage
Chinese President Xi Jinping has in recent months encouraged Communist leaders to “ensure that our country marches in the front ranks when it comes to theoretical research in this important area of AI, and occupies the high ground in critical and AI core technologies.” He also asked them to “ensure that critical and core AI technologies are firmly grasped in our own hands.”
Analysts said China’s political system and its government’s eagerness to support the technological advancement were key reasons it could build infrastructure such as cloud computing and a software engineering workforce, and become a big player in artificial intelligence.
Chinese companies enjoy special advantages in deploying new technology like facial recognition, which is often difficult in democratic countries like the U.S., said William Carter, deputy director and fellow in the Technology Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“China does have strengths in terms of application development and deployment, and has the potential to take the lead in the deployment of some technologies like autonomous vehicles and facial recognition where ethical, social and policy hurdles may impede deployment in the U.S. and other parts of the world,” Carter said.
China’s capabilities in image and facial recognition are possibly the best in the world, partly because government controls have made it easier to generate data from a wide range of sources like banks, mobile phone companies and social media.
“These capabilities arise out of the use of deep learning on very large data sets. In general, China has the advantage of having more real world data to train AI systems on … than any other country,” Selman said.
Other areas where China has shown significant advances are natural language processing (in Chinese only) and drone (unmanned aerial vehicle) swarming.
“China also has unique capabilities that are not found in the U.S. or Europe. I’m thinking of electronic payment platforms [e.g. AliPay] and the super app WeChat that provide an advanced platform for the rapid introduction of further AI technologies,” Selman said.
U.S. role
Last February, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order asking government agencies to do more with AI.
“Continued American leadership in artificial intelligence is of paramount importance to maintaining the economic and national security of the United States,” Trump was quoted as saying in an official press release accompanying the order.
Critics have said that Trump’s order does not suggest enhanced government investment and plans for attracting fresh talent in AI research and development, which is essential for growth and industry competition.
Gregory Allen is an adjunct senior fellow with the research group Center for a New American Security. He was recently quoted as saying that the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is spending the most on research and development at $2 billion over five years. In contrast, the Chinese province of Shanghai, which is a city government, is planning to spend $15 billion on AI over 10 years.
“So literally, we have the U.S. federal government at present at risk of being outspent by a provincial government of China,” Allen said.
China’s AI capabilities have limits. They suffer from major weaknesses in areas like advanced semiconductors to support machine learning applications.
“At the end of the day, when it comes to most major AI fields, China is not the technological leader and is not the source of most foundational innovations,” Carter said.
The U.S. still dominates in the overall market for self-driving car technology, machine translation, natural language understanding, and web search. China has gained a strong presence in a few segments of these businesses, largely because of its vast domestic market.
Despite the competition, collaboration and exchange of ideas occur between the two countries in the AI field, although this aspect is less discussed, Carter added.
“Politically, the dynamic is more competitive; economically and scientifically, it is more collaborative,” he said.
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Cameroonian Women Call on Government to Stop Anglophone Separatist Fighting
Hundreds of Cameroonian women gathered in the capital this week to urge the government to stop the killings in the country’s Anglophone separatist western regions. Weeks of violent clashes in those areas have left at least 70 people dead.
The event Thursday at the Yaounde conference center saw about 700 women from various cultural associations call for efforts to end fighting in the English-speaking regions.
Teacher Elizabeth Mankaa, who organized the groups, said most of the women have lost family members or belongings in battles between the military and separatists.
“The northwest and the southwest region are suffering, and we are here to cry like mothers so that the government should hear our cry and stop this crisis,” she said.
Cameroon’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement that dozens of separatists have been killed within the past two weeks.
The Catholic dioceses in the regions said they counted at least 70 bodies, including those of civilians and military members.
Mankaa said all of the victims were children of Cameroon, dying in what she described as a senseless war.
Government to separatists: Surrender
At a separate event Thursday, Prime Minister Joseph Dion Ngute claimed Cameroon’s military is winning the fight. He called on the wives and mothers of separatists to persuade them to surrender.
“I have it on very good information that a lot of those young people out in the bushes are there in spite of themselves,” he said. “They want to come out, but many do not know how to come out. Talk to them [in] a language of fraternity, that we are begging them to leave the bush because they are our own. They are our children.”
Daniel Mukete, a political analyst at the Cameroon Rehabilitation Center for Victims of Conflicts, says the government cannot declare war and deploy heavily armed troops, then expect separatists to disarm.
“Let the enabling condition for an inclusive dialogue be set. Let violence [cease]. Let guns stop being heard. Let the people feel free to express their minds,” Mukete said.
He added that rebel fighters will only believe that troops will not kill them if they withdraw.
Humanitarian principles
Liberian peace activist and 2011 Nobel Peace Prize winner Leymah Roberta Gbowee was at another Yaounde-related event Thursday. She warned that Cameroon will descend into chaos if there are no talks to bring peace to the separatist regions.
“From my own experience as a Liberian, I think it is important that Cameroonians come to the place where there is consensus on humanitarian principles,” she said. “When you hear stories of women using leaves for sanitary pads and people giving birth in the bushes, you know that it is time for leaders to take a step back and say we need to think about the humanity of the people.”
International pressure is growing over the worsening conditions in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions.
The European Union’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, on Thursday called for talks between the government and rebels as the only way to achieve a sustainable solution.
In a speech at the European Parliament, she said the humanitarian consequences were alarming with about half a million internally displaced people and more than 32,000 Cameroon refugees registered in Nigeria.
More than 1,500 people have been killed in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions since fighting broke out in 2017.
The unrest was sparked by English-speaking teachers and lawyers protesting Francophone dominance.
Armed rebels took over the movement, demanding independence for an English-speaking state they call “Ambazonia.” Their demands were met with a government crackdown and calls to surrender or be killed.
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Biden Expected to Launch Presidential Campaign Next Week
Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to join the crowded 2020 Democratic presidential race next week.
The decision answers one of the most significant outstanding questions of the early presidential primary season, which has already seen announcements from 18 high-profile Democrats. Biden, 76, would be the oldest and most experienced politician in the race.
His plans were confirmed by three people with knowledge, who insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. The announcement is expected as early as Wednesday and would cap months of deliberation over his political future.
The specific launch date and location is unclear. Biden is likely to quickly make visits to early-voting states.
One person said Biden’s advisers are also considering an early event in Charlottesville, Virginia, the site of a deadly clash between white supremacists and counterprotesters in 2017. The location would be intended to draw a contrast between Biden and President Donald Trump, who initially said there were some “very fine people on both sides” of the violent confrontation.
Biden has been particularly outspoken against the rise of white supremacy in the Trump era.
One of the most recognizable names in U.S. politics, Biden served as Barack Obama’s two-term vice president after nearly four decades as a Delaware senator. His high-profile, working-class background and connection to the Obama years would help him enter the race as a front-runner, although he faces questions about his age and whether his more moderate record fits with a party that has become more liberal.
With a record in elected office that stretches half a century, Biden faces multiple challenges.
Last month he struggled to respond to claims he touched 2014 Nevada lieutenant governor nominee Lucy Flores’ shoulders and kissed the back of her head before a campaign event. A few other women have made similar claims, though none has alleged sexual misconduct.
The incident is just a taste of the harsh vetting from both parties expected for Biden, who has run for president twice before but never from such a strong political starting point.
His first White House bid in 1988 ended after a plagiarism scandal. And in recent weeks, he was repeatedly forced to explain his 1991 decision, as Senate Judiciary Committee chairman, to allow Anita Hill to face questions about her allegations of sexual harassment against Clarence Thomas, then a nominee for the Supreme Court.
Biden has since apologized for his role in the hearing. But in the #MeToo era, it’s another example of why critics believe he may struggle to catch on with the Democratic primary voters of 2020.
On paper at least, however, he may be well positioned to take on Trump in a general election.
The Republican president’s allies have privately warned that Biden might be the biggest threat to Trump’s re-election given Biden’s potential appeal among the white-working class in the Midwest, the same region that allowed Trump to win the presidency.
your ad hereSanders Claims She Didn’t Lie, Despite Mueller Finding
President Donald Trump’s spokeswoman Sarah Sanders pushed back Friday against allegations that special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia report exposed a culture of lying at the White House.
Sanders also disputed allegations that she personally misled the media and TV viewers when she said in 2017 that “countless” members of the FBI had lost confidence in FBI Director James Comey, which led to his firing.
Trump’s White House has given shifting accounts of the reason for Comey’s dismissal. Sanders told reporters that Comey had lost the confidence of rank-and-file members of the FBI who welcomed the president’s decision.
The Mueller report says that Sanders told the special counsel’s team that her words were “a slip of the tongue.” The report also says she acknowledged the comment “was not founded on anything.”
ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked Sanders Friday whether there was “a culture of lying” at the White House.
“Actually, if you look at what I said, the slip of the tongue was in using the word `countless,”‘ Sanders said on “Good Morning America.” She repeated that her comment was made in the “heat of the moment,” meaning it wasn’t “a scripted talking point.”
She added, “I’m sorry I wasn’t a robot.”
Democratic House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler, also speaking on ABC, said Mueller’s report clearly outlines “a culture of lying” at the White House.
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Dozens of African Refugees Flown from Unstable Libya to Niger
The U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) reports 163 refugees from sub-Saharan Africa, who were detained in horrific conditions in Libya, have been flown out of the battle-scarred country to safety in Niger.
The plane landed in Niger’s capital, Niamey, early Friday. This was the first such flight out of Libya since fighting in the capital, Tripoli, escalated two weeks ago. The U.N. refugee agency reports the refugees aboard the plane had been detained in facilities close to the conflict frontlines.
UNHCR spokesman Babar Baloch said his agency was able to secure their release, along with that of more than 300 other refugees, within the past two weeks.
He told VOA the UNHCR is very concerned for the safety of some 3,000 refugees and migrants who remain trapped inside these facilities exposed to the escalating violence.
The refugees, he added, have fled persecution and violence from countries such as Eritrea, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan and Somalia.
“As fighting moves closer to these detention centers, the worry is these refugees could be very, very close to a situation of life and death,” he said. “That is why it is very important that we are able to secure the release of all those who are in those detention facilities and then trying to make sure that they are moved to a safe and secure location.”
The World Health Organization reports more than 200 people have been killed since clashes erupted two weeks ago when troops commanded by a rogue general moved to capture Tripoli.
The refugees who flew to Niger Friday include dozens of women and children. The UNHCR says it is urgently seeking states that will accept them and other refugees from previous flights for resettlement.
Since November 2017, the UNHCR has been able to relocate around 2,800 people from Libya to Niger. So far, places of resettlement have been found for nearly half of them. The rest remain in Niamey, waiting for a country willing to give them a home.
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Pollsters: Britain’s Governing Conservatives Heading For Electoral Wipe-Out
Britain’s governing Conservative Party faces an historic loss in next month’s European Parliament elections, warn party insiders and pollsters, as a result of its handling of Brexit and the delay of the country’s departure from the European Union.
Half-a-dozen opinion polls suggests the Conservative government of Prime Minister Theresa May could fall off a cliff and the center of British politics could be eroded, benefiting a new Brexit party founded in January by populist Nigel Farage and the Labour Party, which, under the leadership of socialist Jeremy Corbyn, has moved significantly to the left.
“Populist parties are resurgent, politics is re-fragmenting, trust has all but vanished and left, center and right are in a rage. The atmosphere is surly, nasty and vicious,” according to Allister Heath, a commentator.
Few voters expected
Some opinion polls are forecasting Conservative candidates in the May elections for the European Parliament will attract only 15 percent of the vote, which, if accurate, would be the party’s worst electoral performance ever. The forecasts suggest Farage’s Brexit party, which wants an immediate clean break with the European Union, regardless of the economic or political consequences for Britain, including Scotland opting for independence, will top the election.
The Labour Party likely will come in a close second, thanks mainly to pro-Remain voters, who want Britain to stay in the European Union, the pollsters say.
The polls bring home how Brexit is reshaping British politics and setting the country up for a major realignment not seen since the 1920s and the rise of the Labour Party. The likely biggest casualty of the political shift will be the Conservatives, also known as Tories, party insiders admit.
Opposite camps
Voters now identify more strongly with either the Leave or Remain camps than they do with Britain’s parties, in a division that’s falling more along socio-cultural lines than traditional socio-economic ones.
When it comes to a possible general election in Britain, which many politicians expect to happen this year, polling data suggests that just half of the Conservative Party’s lifelong voters would back it.
A quarter say they will switch their vote to Farage’s group or his old UK Independence Party, setting up the likelihood of Labour emerging as the largest parliamentary party and reliant on the support to govern of Scottish Nationalists, Liberal Democrats and a breakaway pro-Remain party called Change UK, made up of Labour and centrist Conservative defectors.
Until this month it was unthinkable that Britain would have to take part in European elections. The country was due to leave the bloc on March 29, but now has a new departure date of October 31.
But deadlock in the British parliament, where lawmakers refused to approve an exit deal negotiated by Prime Minister May with the European Union and also have not been prepared to leave the bloc without a deal, forced the exit delay. EU leaders had no option under the bloc’s rules but to demand Britain participate in the elections for as long as it remains a member.
Political system in crisis
The Euro-elections couldn’t have come at a worse time for a British political system that’s cracking and creaking under the strain of an ill-tempered Brexit, which has seen Leavers demanding a sharp break with the Continent and pro-Europeans trying to salvage a so-called soft Brexit.
May is holding talks with Labour in an attempt to secure a compromise exit deal involving a deeper, permanent customs deal with the European Union, a move that’s infuriating hardline Brexiters in her party.
Dozens of local party chairmen and hundreds of grassroots activists the party relies on for campaigning have said they will shun the elections and offer no help. The Conservative Party is also running out of money with big donors on both sides of the Remain and Leave debate, withholding their normal funding.
“Many long-standing Tories are on strike,” says Daniel Hannan, a Brexiter and Conservative European Parliament lawmaker. Writing in Britain’s Sunday Times newspaper, Hannan raised the prospect of a complete Conservative meltdown next month.
“There comes a point when a political party gets so badly hammered at a national poll that its position becomes irrecoverable. It happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993. It could happen to the British Tories next month,” he warned.
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your ad hereПогано бути рабом, але ще гірше бути рабом раба!
Громадяни України схаменіться, що ви робите?
Ви голосуєте за покидька, який бігає похвостичем у грабіжника і вбивці Коломойського, бо вам погано живеться!
Пригадайте як ви голосували за дебільного Януковича у 2010 році, бо вам здавалося, що Ющенко не зробив вас багатими. Чим це закінчилося – Майдан, війна, анексія, десятки тисяч вбитих і покалічених. Стало краще?
Тепер вам здається, що погано живеться при Порошенкові і ви готові голосувати за напівграмотного дурника, який не знає державної мови, української історії, уникав служби в армії, не вивчав дипломатію і є рабом злодія і вбивці проти якого ФБР веде розслідування?
А пропутінські ЗМІ переконують, що гірше ніж зараз бути не може. Та ні шановні українці, може бути гірше! І буде гірше якщо ви як вівці з беканням побіжите 21 квітня голосувати за блазня напівкровку.
Так, Порошенко не найкращий Президент для України і ми хочемо змінити його на кращого. Але Зеленський+Коломойський+Тимошенко+Бойко+Ахметов – це смерть України, Майдан, громадянська війна, руїна, знецнення гривні і вашого майна, голод, сотні тисяч загиблих і скалічених.
Зеленський з Коломойським втечуть в Ізраїль, Тимошенко, Бойко і Ахметов – в путляндію. А що буде з вами і вашим дітьми? Подумайте і краще не робіть помилку 21 квітня, бо будете шкодувати про це усе своє життя!
СЛАВА УКРАЇНІ!
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your ad hereЗеленський – це тупий-москаль-янукович-2, а вибори 2019 року є клоном виборів Президента 2010 року
Будувати будь-які прогнози – справа геть невдячна. Але, я вважаю, суспільство має знати, до чого треба бути готовим. Тому пропоную найбільш вірогідний сценарій після можливої перемоги Володимира Зеленського в другому турі виборів. Яким президентом буде Зеленський і яка ситуація складеться в країні на чолі з людиною без політичного досвіду?
Зеленський буде слабким президентом
Жорстко огризатися, зухвало перебивати та демонстративно класти слухавку під час розмови з Петром Порошенком – це одне. В якійсь мірі, це демонстрація альфа-поведінки. Це була така відповідь Порошенку на заклики «будь мужиком». Формат дозволяв проявити себе «сильним».
Але формат управління державою набагато складніший. Однієї нахабності, нічим не підкріпленої, недостатньо.
Зокрема, в нашій парламентсько-президентській республіці Зеленський, на відміну від Порошенка, не буде мати в парламенті власної політичної сили, яка входить до коаліції. Принаймні, в період до чергових виборів 27 жовтня.
А шансів на розпуск парламенту в Зеленського практично немає. Згідно з Конституцією, у Зеленського буде гіпотетична можливість, за умови відсутності коаліції протягом 30 днів, на розпуск парламенту до 27 травня. Але Верховна Рада може призначити день інавгурації на період 28 травня–3 червня. І тоді терміни будуть прострочені.
Тому Зеленський вимушений буде тимчасово співіснувати з чинним складом парламенту. Причому, не просто співіснувати, а домовлятися. Бо єдині кадрові рішення, які Зеленський зможе самостійно зробити без узгодження з парламентом – це призначити секретаря РНБО, вище командування ЗСУ, половину складу Нацради з питань телебачення і радіомовлення, половину складу Ради Нацбанку.
А кандидатури на посади міністра закордонних справ, міністра оборони, генпрокурора, голови СБУ мають отримати більшість підтримки в парламенті. Інакше, президент буде, як валіза без ручки.
Радники Зеленського вже обмовились у ЗМІ щодо «секретного плану» для Верховної Ради. Можна припустити, що Зеленський спробує шантажувати депутатів відмовою підписувати ухвалені закони (тоді доведеться долати вето 2/3 голосів), а уряд – зупинкою дії актів з подальшою перевіркою їх на конституційність у Конституційному суді.
Це буде параліч влади і взагалі стан кризи до парламентських виборів. Однак є сумніви, що Зеленський виграє від цього. Він, звичайно, буде пояснювати громадськості, що погані депутати ставлять палки в колеса – блокують не тільки кадрові ініціативи, але й всі внесені ним законопроекти. Суспільство спочатку може поставитись до цього з розумінням, а потім перейти до оцінки «поганому танцюристу завжди щось заважає».
До речі, конфлікт з урядом і парламентом вже має яскравий прецедент за часів президентства Віктора Ющенка. Перемогти законодавчий та виконавчий органи влади Віктору Андрійовичу не вдалося. Це мав би бути дуже гарний урок для Зеленського.
Крім того, через відсутність політичного досвіду в Зеленського з великою ймовірністю буде побудована криптократія. Тобто реальною владою володітиме тіньове та приховане коло осіб. Дії та рішення Зеленського будуть визначатися не власними переконаннями, а позицією радників. Коридорами Адміністрації президента буде ходити не один «сірий кардинал». Одним словом, Зеленський буде не суб’єктом, а фактично об’єктом політики.
Зеленський десакралізується через величезне розчарування суспільства
Згідно з соцопитуванням групи «Рейтинг», проведеним 5–10 квітня, Зеленський переможе в другому турі. Він нагадує персонажа Гудвіна з «Чарівника смарагдового міста», який працював у цирку, потрапив до Зеленої країни, і мешканці цієї країни сприймали його за чарівника.
Але Зеленський, як і будь-яка інша людина – не чарівник. Зеленський, на якого проектують свої мрії українці, вийде в реальність і перетвориться на «Попелюшку» в чоловічому роді. Це невідворотно. Бо 52% українців, згідно з соцопитуванням групи «Рейтинг», «очікують покращення ситуації в країні в результаті президентських виборів». А цього не відбудеться.
Війна на Донбасі не закінчиться. Знайти компроміс із Путіним і «зійтися посередині» не вийде – Кремль ще раз нагадає про «громадянську війну» в Україні та необхідність Зеленському домовлятися з черговим «пушиліним». «Перестати стріляти» не вийде. Депутатів, як у серіалі «Слуга народу», Зеленський не розстріляє. Олігархи з їхніми монополіями нікуди не дінуться. «Кінця епохи бідності» не настане. Справедливого покарання топ-корупціонерів за нинішньої судової системи не буде. Дороги ще тривалий час не будуть європейськими. Обіцяних ним зарплат учителям по $4000 не буде.
І люди, наче під струменями крижаної води, будуть стрімко тверезішати. Поки Зеленський буде зустрічатись із лідерами країн світу – Трампом, Меркель, можливо, навіть зі своїм кумиром Болсонару – українці будуть волати: «Він нас зрадив! Де обіцяна країна мрій?»
Хоча Зеленський буде намагатись компенсувати цей негатив гучним піаром. Наприклад, не здивуюсь, якщо одним із перших своїх указів він перейменує Адміністрацію президента та заявить про скорочення бюрократів. Може ще зріжуть паркан біля будівлі та почнуть водити екскурсії, як у Білому домі в США.
Олігарх Ігор Коломойський розправить крила
Не треба розповідати наївні казки про виключно бізнес-партнерство Зеленського з Коломойським на телеканалі «1+1» і нічого більшого. Згідно з розслідуванням програми «Схеми: корупція в деталях», за 2 роки Зеленський 13 разів злітав до Женеви та Тель-Авіва, де мешкає Коломойський. Не кажучи вже про використання Зеленським транспорту та охоронців Коломойського. Їхній взаємозв’зок – це дещо більше, ніж просто партнерство.
Я думаю, Коломойський навіть не буде чекати на потрапляння партії «Слуга народу» до парламенту. І суттєво активізується ще до того часу. Адже відчувши близькість перемоги Зеленського на виборах президента, олігарх вже після першого туру виборів дав інтерв’ю журналістам, у якому без зайвого сорому заявив «нехай повернуть мені $2 мільярди». А наступного дня після цього стало відомо, що Господарський суд Києва прийняв до розгляду позов Коломойського про повернення йому акцій «ПриватБанку».
Чи є трагедія в тому, що цей олігарх розправить крила? Справа в тому, що в нас ще є олігарх Рінат Ахметов, який пречудово себе почуває. У нас є олігарх Віктор Пінчук, який також себе непогано почуває. У нас є олігархи Дмитро Фірташ і Сергій Льовочкін. Країна живе з олігархами вже 28-й рік. Просто розплачується за їхні корупційні «схеми» багатостраждальний український народ.
Таким чином, реалістичний сценарій перших місяців президентства Зеленського не є оптимістичним за своєю суттю. Після пост-модерної виборчої кампанії Зеленський потрапить до жорстких реалій модерну в управлінні державою. Людині, яка ніколи не бачила воду і не вміє плавати, доведеться бовтатися у воді з піраньями. Рейтинг довіри до Зеленського приречений падати зі швидкістю блискавки. Бо навіть ті, хто сприймаються «новими обличчями», не мають протидії від законів розчарування. Їм так само не пробачають відсутності швидких змін.
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Перший раз Зеленський засцяв ще в 2014 році!
Як заявили у Генштабі, для призову під час мобілізації Зеленському надсилали повістки чотири рази.
«Для призову під час мобілізації громадянину Зеленському В.О. надсилалися повістки: 15.04.2014, 23.06.2014, 15.08.2014, 10.05.2015 за адресою, визначеною у його облікових документах. Громадянин Зеленський В.О. до військового комісаріату за його викликом не прибував», – інформує Міноборони.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ заявив про проведення перевірки щодо проходження військової служби кандидата на посаду президента України Володимира Зеленського. Про це мовиться у повідомленні на сайті Міноборони.
За даними міністерства, це було зроблено на запит народних депутатів від фракцій «Блок Петра Порошенка» Олександра Бригинця, Юлія Мамчура, «Народний фронт» Тетяни Чорновол та позафракційного депутата Віктора Бондаря.
«Інформуємо, що громадянин Зеленський В.О. перебуває на військовому обліку військовозобов’язаних у Металургійно-Довгинцівському об’єднаному районному територіальному центрі комплектування та соціальної підтримки міста Кривого Рогу з 22.12.2008 року і по теперішній час, військове звання – солдат, військово-облікова спеціальність – діловод діловодства. Придатний до військової служби. Військову службу у ЗС України не проходив», – зазначається у повідомленні.
Водночас Римма Зеленська, мати кандидата у президенти Володимира Зеленського, у коментарі «Громадському» телебаченню 13 квітня заявила, що її син давно зареєстрований у Києві, і жодних адресованих йому повісток у Кривому Розі вона не отримувала і не бачила.
У штабі Зеленського цю інформацію наразі не коментували.
За повідомленнями ЗМІ, у квітні 2014 року, якраз через кілька днів після направлення першої зі згаданих Генштабом повісток, мати Зеленського телефонувала йому просто під час його публічної прес-конференції з нагоди представлення нового комедійного телешоу, щоб повідомити про цю повістку. За тими повідомленнями, тоді Зеленський заявляв, що, як військовозобов’язаний, «піде воювати», але стверджував, що документи мали переслати за місцем його проживання в Києві, де він зареєстрований.
Одне з українських видань також навело тоді коментар із Дніпропетровського обласного військкомату, що чоловіки в Україні зобов’язані, змінюючи місце проживання, не тільки оформити нову «прописку» (реєстрацію), але і знятися з військового обліку за старою адресою і стати на облік за новою.
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