Month: June 2018

There is momentum for improving Turkey’s frayed relations with the West even as it warms up to Russia, a senior Turkish government adviser told VOA on condition of anonymity, days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected.

Erdogan’s adviser said that in February, during a visit by then-U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, both sides committed to the creation of a road map to address many differences that had sent relations between Washington and Ankara plunging to a crisis point. The adviser noted that bilateral relations were “better than six months ago, thanks to steps agreed on during Tillerson’s visit.”

He said the process led to the recent withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia from the Syrian city of Manbij.

Ankara accuses the YPG of being linked to Kurdish insurgents fighting in Turkey. Washington, however, has backed the militia in the war against Islamic State. The YPG’s presence in Manbij with U.S. forces had become a focal point in Turkey’s tense relationship with the United States, a NATO ally.

Ankara trumpeted the Kurdish militia withdrawal as a triumph and a template for a further rollback of YPG-controlled areas across northern Syria. “We expect this process to continue,” said the adviser.

Regarding areas of contention, he said, “There is a process to compartmentalize issues of disagreement.”

“Each issue is being addressed separately by working groups,” he added, so as to prevent differences on one issue from affecting others.

The adviser, however, acknowledged that no progress had been made on the key issue of a Turkish request for the extradition of Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Ankara alleges Gulen initiated a failed 2016 coup that claimed 250 lives. The cleric, who lives in self-imposed exile in the United States, denies the accusations. The U.S. says extradition is a matter for the courts.

Adding to the souring of ties is the imprisonment in Turkey of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson. He has been jailed for nearly two years and is currently on trial on charges of supporting Gulen.

U.S. President Donald Trump has strongly criticized the case, with some members of Congress accusing Ankara of hostage-taking. Erdogan has linked the Brunson case to calls for Gulen to be extradited.

The Brunson case has become a lightning rod for wider U.S. concerns about Turkey. The worsening of bilateral relations is countered by Ankara’s warming ties with Moscow.

Missile system purchase

Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin on Friday reaffirmed Turkey’s controversial purchase of a Russian S-400 missile system. Washington strongly opposes the deal, warning the missiles could compromise NATO systems.

The S-400 controversy comes as Ankara and Moscow increasingly cooperate over Syria. While Turkey strongly backs Syrian rebels, it is working with Russia and Iran, which support the Damascus government, to end the civil war under a peace effort named the Astana Process.

The Erdogan adviser sought to allay concerns by Turkey’s NATO allies about its intentions toward Moscow.

“Turkey is not moving away from the West,” he said. “Our relationship with Russia is specific to working on Syria, based on a necessity of cooperation. Our relationship with the West is a strategic relationship.”

“The situation is a failure of the West to intervene in the Syrian conflict. It left a vacuum, which Russia filled. That has created a situation where we have to work with Russia,” added the adviser.

Fears of a potential pivot toward Moscow are fueled by criticism of the decline in human rights in Turkey and Erdogan’s authoritarianism. Critics increasingly draw parallels between Erdogan’s rule and that of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Following Turkey’s June 24 elections, Erdogan is likely to use his renewed electoral mandate to answer critics regarding his democratic credentials. International monitors have criticized the fairness of the election, which he won by a wide margin, but the actual voting and counting were broadly accepted by the rival candidates.

The Turkish president also reportedly is set to lift the much-criticized emergency rule introduced after the failed coup. This past week also saw an Istanbul court release from jail Mehmet Altan, a high-profile Erdogan critic; however, police raids on those who oppose the president, including some news media, continue.

Analysts suggest such moves will be welcomed by Turkey’s Western allies, in particular the European Union. Human rights concerns are major obstacles to relations, but Brussels needs Turkey to continue a migrant deal that has markedly reduced the number of people seeking sanctuary in Europe.

With Turkey currently hosting more than 3 million refugees, mainly from Syria, Erdogan is also looking to build on that cooperation.

“There is a need for a strategic cooperation on refugees. The problem is going to continue with instability in the region. Turkey cannot take any more [refugees],” said the adviser.
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There is momentum for improving Turkey’s frayed relations with the West even as it warms up to Russia, a senior Turkish government adviser told VOA on condition of anonymity, days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected.

Erdogan’s adviser said that in February, during a visit by then-U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, both sides committed to the creation of a road map to address many differences that had sent relations between Washington and Ankara plunging to a crisis point. The adviser noted that bilateral relations were “better than six months ago, thanks to steps agreed on during Tillerson’s visit.”

He said the process led to the recent withdrawal of the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia from the Syrian city of Manbij.

Ankara accuses the YPG of being linked to Kurdish insurgents fighting in Turkey. Washington, however, has backed the militia in the war against Islamic State. The YPG’s presence in Manbij with U.S. forces had become a focal point in Turkey’s tense relationship with the United States, a NATO ally.

Ankara trumpeted the Kurdish militia withdrawal as a triumph and a template for a further rollback of YPG-controlled areas across northern Syria. “We expect this process to continue,” said the adviser.

Regarding areas of contention, he said, “There is a process to compartmentalize issues of disagreement.”

“Each issue is being addressed separately by working groups,” he added, so as to prevent differences on one issue from affecting others.

The adviser, however, acknowledged that no progress had been made on the key issue of a Turkish request for the extradition of Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Ankara alleges Gulen initiated a failed 2016 coup that claimed 250 lives. The cleric, who lives in self-imposed exile in the United States, denies the accusations. The U.S. says extradition is a matter for the courts.

Adding to the souring of ties is the imprisonment in Turkey of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson. He has been jailed for nearly two years and is currently on trial on charges of supporting Gulen.

U.S. President Donald Trump has strongly criticized the case, with some members of Congress accusing Ankara of hostage-taking. Erdogan has linked the Brunson case to calls for Gulen to be extradited.

The Brunson case has become a lightning rod for wider U.S. concerns about Turkey. The worsening of bilateral relations is countered by Ankara’s warming ties with Moscow.

Missile system purchase

Erdogan spokesman Ibrahim Kalin on Friday reaffirmed Turkey’s controversial purchase of a Russian S-400 missile system. Washington strongly opposes the deal, warning the missiles could compromise NATO systems.

The S-400 controversy comes as Ankara and Moscow increasingly cooperate over Syria. While Turkey strongly backs Syrian rebels, it is working with Russia and Iran, which support the Damascus government, to end the civil war under a peace effort named the Astana Process.

The Erdogan adviser sought to allay concerns by Turkey’s NATO allies about its intentions toward Moscow.

“Turkey is not moving away from the West,” he said. “Our relationship with Russia is specific to working on Syria, based on a necessity of cooperation. Our relationship with the West is a strategic relationship.”

“The situation is a failure of the West to intervene in the Syrian conflict. It left a vacuum, which Russia filled. That has created a situation where we have to work with Russia,” added the adviser.

Fears of a potential pivot toward Moscow are fueled by criticism of the decline in human rights in Turkey and Erdogan’s authoritarianism. Critics increasingly draw parallels between Erdogan’s rule and that of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Following Turkey’s June 24 elections, Erdogan is likely to use his renewed electoral mandate to answer critics regarding his democratic credentials. International monitors have criticized the fairness of the election, which he won by a wide margin, but the actual voting and counting were broadly accepted by the rival candidates.

The Turkish president also reportedly is set to lift the much-criticized emergency rule introduced after the failed coup. This past week also saw an Istanbul court release from jail Mehmet Altan, a high-profile Erdogan critic; however, police raids on those who oppose the president, including some news media, continue.

Analysts suggest such moves will be welcomed by Turkey’s Western allies, in particular the European Union. Human rights concerns are major obstacles to relations, but Brussels needs Turkey to continue a migrant deal that has markedly reduced the number of people seeking sanctuary in Europe.

With Turkey currently hosting more than 3 million refugees, mainly from Syria, Erdogan is also looking to build on that cooperation.

“There is a need for a strategic cooperation on refugees. The problem is going to continue with instability in the region. Turkey cannot take any more [refugees],” said the adviser.
…

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U.N. agencies are cautiously welcoming an agreement the European Union reached Friday after a marathon summit on problems posed by migrants who reach Europe via the Mediterranean Sea.

The European Union states in principle have agreed to set up so-called secure centers to process asylum claims. Under the proposed deal, these centers are to be established in EU states on a voluntary basis. The aim is to relieve front-line states, such as Italy, Spain and Greece, of having the sole responsibility of accepting and processing migrants rescued at sea.

A welcomed consensus

A spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, Leonard Doyle, said he was pleased with the solidarity and consensus that emerged from the summit in Brussels.

“Any solution that comes from the migration issue needs to be a European solution,” Doyle said, but it should come “with the absolutely indispensable engagement of the African Union at every step of the way.” 

U.N. agencies report about 40,000 refugees and migrants have arrived in Europe by sea this year, a small fraction of the number over the same period in 2016. Despite the reduced numbers, positions against maritime refugees and migrants have hardened. Recently, Italy and Malta refused to disembark hundreds of migrants rescued at sea.

U.N. waiting for details

Charley Yaxley, a U.N. refugee agency spokesman, said the EU agreement was a promising first step. But he told VOA that the proof of the effectiveness of this proposal would be in its implementation. He said the details were yet to be developed.

“Ultimately, if this is a coming together of European states and states in the region to develop a more harmonized approach to asylum that relieves some of the disproportionate responsibility that is currently being placed on a small handful of states, then that is something that will be welcomed,” Yaxley said.  

Yaxley said he wanted to see a unified approach that moves away from states unilaterally adopting actions that strengthen borders and restrict access by those seeking asylum from war and persecution.  
…

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U.N. agencies are cautiously welcoming an agreement the European Union reached Friday after a marathon summit on problems posed by migrants who reach Europe via the Mediterranean Sea.

The European Union states in principle have agreed to set up so-called secure centers to process asylum claims. Under the proposed deal, these centers are to be established in EU states on a voluntary basis. The aim is to relieve front-line states, such as Italy, Spain and Greece, of having the sole responsibility of accepting and processing migrants rescued at sea.

A welcomed consensus

A spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, Leonard Doyle, said he was pleased with the solidarity and consensus that emerged from the summit in Brussels.

“Any solution that comes from the migration issue needs to be a European solution,” Doyle said, but it should come “with the absolutely indispensable engagement of the African Union at every step of the way.” 

U.N. agencies report about 40,000 refugees and migrants have arrived in Europe by sea this year, a small fraction of the number over the same period in 2016. Despite the reduced numbers, positions against maritime refugees and migrants have hardened. Recently, Italy and Malta refused to disembark hundreds of migrants rescued at sea.

U.N. waiting for details

Charley Yaxley, a U.N. refugee agency spokesman, said the EU agreement was a promising first step. But he told VOA that the proof of the effectiveness of this proposal would be in its implementation. He said the details were yet to be developed.

“Ultimately, if this is a coming together of European states and states in the region to develop a more harmonized approach to asylum that relieves some of the disproportionate responsibility that is currently being placed on a small handful of states, then that is something that will be welcomed,” Yaxley said.  

Yaxley said he wanted to see a unified approach that moves away from states unilaterally adopting actions that strengthen borders and restrict access by those seeking asylum from war and persecution.  
…

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European Union leaders meeting Friday in Brussels hailed progress in reaching at least a partial deal on migration. But there appeared to be little breakthrough in two other key subjects: Brexit and reforming the eurozone financial union.

It took marathon talks lasting until early Friday for EU leaders to reach a partial and vaguely worded agreement on migration, a subject that bitterly divides the 28-member group.

EU chief Donald Tusk acknowledged a long road ahead.

“As regards our deal on migration,” he said, “it is far too early to talk about a success. We have managed to reach a deal in the European Council, but this is the easiest part of the task.”

The toughest part, Tusk said, will be in its implementation.

The leaders agreed to tighten the EU’s external borders, set up centers inside and outside Europe to screen asylum-seekers and more rapidly process their claims. But the centers are voluntary and it is not clear which countries would be willing to host them.

Many analysts say the deal merely papers over deep divides that have seen Italy insisting other countries take in more migrants — something Eastern European countries, in particular, refuse to do.

Still, a number of European leaders were upbeat about making any headway.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the agreement was a good signal. While more needed to be done to create a common asylum process, she said she was optimistic the EU could continue its work.

Merkel has been under pressure to come home with some kind of deal or face the possible collapse of her coalition government.

President Emmanuel Macron of France said the deal reflected European cooperation and values and that protected European citizens.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also seemed satisfied, saying his country was no longer alone in dealing with floods of migrant arrivals.

The number of migrants arriving in Europe has plummeted in recent months, down from more than a million in 2015 to tens of thousands so far this year. Many Europeans continue to view migration as a crisis — sentiments partly fueled by populist politicians and fears of Islamist extremism.

Humanitarian group MSF, or Doctors Without Borders, has sharply criticized the migrant deal as inhumane, claiming it would block people escaping horrors at home from reaching Europe.

It is clear the migration crisis is not going away. A pair of ships carrying migrants were at sea for several days until bickering countries finally gave them safe harbor. On Friday, Libya’s coast guard announced roughly 100 migrants were missing at sea and feared dead.

EU leaders failed to make headway on two other issues — closer integration of the eurozone monetary union, and Brexit, which is the term used to refer to Britain’s decision to leave the EU. As for the latter, EU chief Tusk said the most difficult issues in reaching a deal between the EU and Britain by October remained unresolved.
…

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European Union leaders meeting Friday in Brussels hailed progress in reaching at least a partial deal on migration. But there appeared to be little breakthrough in two other key subjects: Brexit and reforming the eurozone financial union.

It took marathon talks lasting until early Friday for EU leaders to reach a partial and vaguely worded agreement on migration, a subject that bitterly divides the 28-member group.

EU chief Donald Tusk acknowledged a long road ahead.

“As regards our deal on migration,” he said, “it is far too early to talk about a success. We have managed to reach a deal in the European Council, but this is the easiest part of the task.”

The toughest part, Tusk said, will be in its implementation.

The leaders agreed to tighten the EU’s external borders, set up centers inside and outside Europe to screen asylum-seekers and more rapidly process their claims. But the centers are voluntary and it is not clear which countries would be willing to host them.

Many analysts say the deal merely papers over deep divides that have seen Italy insisting other countries take in more migrants — something Eastern European countries, in particular, refuse to do.

Still, a number of European leaders were upbeat about making any headway.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the agreement was a good signal. While more needed to be done to create a common asylum process, she said she was optimistic the EU could continue its work.

Merkel has been under pressure to come home with some kind of deal or face the possible collapse of her coalition government.

President Emmanuel Macron of France said the deal reflected European cooperation and values and that protected European citizens.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also seemed satisfied, saying his country was no longer alone in dealing with floods of migrant arrivals.

The number of migrants arriving in Europe has plummeted in recent months, down from more than a million in 2015 to tens of thousands so far this year. Many Europeans continue to view migration as a crisis — sentiments partly fueled by populist politicians and fears of Islamist extremism.

Humanitarian group MSF, or Doctors Without Borders, has sharply criticized the migrant deal as inhumane, claiming it would block people escaping horrors at home from reaching Europe.

It is clear the migration crisis is not going away. A pair of ships carrying migrants were at sea for several days until bickering countries finally gave them safe harbor. On Friday, Libya’s coast guard announced roughly 100 migrants were missing at sea and feared dead.

EU leaders failed to make headway on two other issues — closer integration of the eurozone monetary union, and Brexit, which is the term used to refer to Britain’s decision to leave the EU. As for the latter, EU chief Tusk said the most difficult issues in reaching a deal between the EU and Britain by October remained unresolved.
…

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A trade deal with the European Union expected to be ratified this year will accelerate growth of Vietnam’s export-reliant economy without help from the U.S. market, analysts say.

The European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement signed in 2015 should speed annual economic growth by half a percent to more than 7 percent by 2019, according to data from the business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates.

European Union members Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom already take 9 percent of all exports from Vietnam, and 28 states belong to the whole bloc.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said Tuesday the two sides had finished a legal review of the deal, the Vietnamese Communist Party news website Nhan Dan Online reported.

The deal signed by negotiators in December 2015 must pass the European Parliament as well as Vietnamese lawmakers.

“It should give Vietnam better access to European markets, not just the usual garments and footwear but also for seafood and other agro-processing products,” said Adam McCarty, chief economist with Mekong Economics in the capital Hanoi. “Generally, it will be good.”

​Top trading partners

Vietnam counts the European Union, with a market of about 500 million people, as its No. 3 trading partner after China and the United States. Their trade totaled about $50.4 billion last year.

Vietnam relies on exports of garments, auto parts and consumer electronics to stoke a GDP that already outgrows most of the world. It had hoped the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal would open tariff-free access to the United States until U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from it last year.

The EU-Vietnam deal will eliminate import tariffs on 99 percent of all goods within a decade and open Vietnam to European services such as health care, packaging and conference hosting.

Elimination of tariffs will save money for manufacturers based in Vietnam and selling to Europe.

“It won’t be able to compensate, because the U.S. is still the largest and most important economy, but it gives businesses opportunities,” said Song Seng Wun, Southeast Asia-focused economist in the private banking unit of CIMB in Singapore.

For the European Union

The European Union pursued the trade deal with Vietnam so its companies could better access an increasingly wealthy consumer market of about 93 million people. Foreign investors favor Vietnam for its low wages, creating domestic jobs that in turn drive consumer spending.

Tariff cuts should help imports of European luxury goods to Vietnam, said Maxfield Brown, senior associate with the consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates in Ho Chi Minh City.

The agreement also gets the EU into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a 10-member trading bloc to which Vietnam belongs.

The EU failed to finish a trade agreement with the association in 2009, after two years of talks, in part because the bloc could not reconcile the varied agendas of all member states.

Final steps

Analysts say a Vietnamese trade ministry meeting this month with the EU’s trade commissioner indicates that a deal is nearly done. The two sides “reached consensus” at that meeting on all content of an investment protection agreement, the Communist Party news website said.

In a possible snag, European Parliament members had voiced concerns last year over human rights in Vietnam. Some suggested more debate in Vietnam on political rights and freedom of expression.

Vietnam may want the final trade deal to scrap its classification by the EU as a non-market economy, McCarty said. That designation would further liberalize the Vietnamese trade in footwear, he said.

Today’s rules, which the EU set to head off export dumping, give Vietnam a “headache,” he said.

European investment in Vietnam had already picked up over the past two years in anticipation of a finished free trade deal, Brown said.

As of last year, 24 countries from Europe had made a combined 2,000 investments in Vietnam. They were worth a total of $21.5 billion.

Foreign direct investment, or FDI, in export manufacturing plants still comes largely from Asian countries, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

“It’s gotten to this stage, so there’s an incentive for both sides to get over the finish line and open up the market for European manufacturers, exporters and get Vietnam more FDI,” Brown said.
…

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A trade deal with the European Union expected to be ratified this year will accelerate growth of Vietnam’s export-reliant economy without help from the U.S. market, analysts say.

The European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement signed in 2015 should speed annual economic growth by half a percent to more than 7 percent by 2019, according to data from the business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates.

European Union members Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom already take 9 percent of all exports from Vietnam, and 28 states belong to the whole bloc.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade said Tuesday the two sides had finished a legal review of the deal, the Vietnamese Communist Party news website Nhan Dan Online reported.

The deal signed by negotiators in December 2015 must pass the European Parliament as well as Vietnamese lawmakers.

“It should give Vietnam better access to European markets, not just the usual garments and footwear but also for seafood and other agro-processing products,” said Adam McCarty, chief economist with Mekong Economics in the capital Hanoi. “Generally, it will be good.”

​Top trading partners

Vietnam counts the European Union, with a market of about 500 million people, as its No. 3 trading partner after China and the United States. Their trade totaled about $50.4 billion last year.

Vietnam relies on exports of garments, auto parts and consumer electronics to stoke a GDP that already outgrows most of the world. It had hoped the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal would open tariff-free access to the United States until U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from it last year.

The EU-Vietnam deal will eliminate import tariffs on 99 percent of all goods within a decade and open Vietnam to European services such as health care, packaging and conference hosting.

Elimination of tariffs will save money for manufacturers based in Vietnam and selling to Europe.

“It won’t be able to compensate, because the U.S. is still the largest and most important economy, but it gives businesses opportunities,” said Song Seng Wun, Southeast Asia-focused economist in the private banking unit of CIMB in Singapore.

For the European Union

The European Union pursued the trade deal with Vietnam so its companies could better access an increasingly wealthy consumer market of about 93 million people. Foreign investors favor Vietnam for its low wages, creating domestic jobs that in turn drive consumer spending.

Tariff cuts should help imports of European luxury goods to Vietnam, said Maxfield Brown, senior associate with the consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates in Ho Chi Minh City.

The agreement also gets the EU into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a 10-member trading bloc to which Vietnam belongs.

The EU failed to finish a trade agreement with the association in 2009, after two years of talks, in part because the bloc could not reconcile the varied agendas of all member states.

Final steps

Analysts say a Vietnamese trade ministry meeting this month with the EU’s trade commissioner indicates that a deal is nearly done. The two sides “reached consensus” at that meeting on all content of an investment protection agreement, the Communist Party news website said.

In a possible snag, European Parliament members had voiced concerns last year over human rights in Vietnam. Some suggested more debate in Vietnam on political rights and freedom of expression.

Vietnam may want the final trade deal to scrap its classification by the EU as a non-market economy, McCarty said. That designation would further liberalize the Vietnamese trade in footwear, he said.

Today’s rules, which the EU set to head off export dumping, give Vietnam a “headache,” he said.

European investment in Vietnam had already picked up over the past two years in anticipation of a finished free trade deal, Brown said.

As of last year, 24 countries from Europe had made a combined 2,000 investments in Vietnam. They were worth a total of $21.5 billion.

Foreign direct investment, or FDI, in export manufacturing plants still comes largely from Asian countries, such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea.

“It’s gotten to this stage, so there’s an incentive for both sides to get over the finish line and open up the market for European manufacturers, exporters and get Vietnam more FDI,” Brown said.
…

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