BISHKEK, KYRGYZSTAN — Military spending is surging in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, a development officials link to regional conflicts such as the war in Ukraine, although experts doubt the buildup will increase stability.
While Russia was the dominant arms supplier to these countries for more than three decades, other countries including Turkey, China and the United States have now entered the market.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, last year’s military spending by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan was $1.8 billion. Figures from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which do not disclose information about the share of military spending in their gross domestic product, were not included in the report.
Regional media reports say that last year’s Kazakhstani military budget was 0.5% of the country’s estimated $259.7 billion GDP. Kyrgyzstan’s military accounted for 1.5% of its estimated $13.9 billion GDP, or $208.5 million, and for Tajikistan it was 1% of an estimated $12 billion GDP, or $120 million.
Kyrgyz buildup
Kamchibek Tashiev, deputy chairman of the Kyrgyz Cabinet of Ministers, who coordinates Kyrgyzstan’s security forces, told a July 2023 government meeting that since 2021, Kyrgyzstan had spent $1,3 billion to modernize its military. He said much of that went to new high-tech weaponry.
“We bought unmanned Bayraktar, Aksungur, Akinci, combat aerial vehicles, which many countries have not yet bought; we also bought upgrades to our air defense system, Mi-8, Mi-17, helicopters,” he said.
Tense relations with neighboring Tajikistan prompted Kyrgyzstan’s government to start paying more attention to the military, with a 2023 Kyrgyz Defense Ministry military doctrine calling the threat level posed by Kyrgyz-Tajik border tension significant.
That tension led to armed conflicts between the countries in April 2021 and September 2022, together causing the deaths of civilians and displacement of thousands of people.
If Kyrgyz officials were hoping new weapons would give them an upper hand with Tajikistan, they were mistaken.
In May 2022, Iran opened a drone production plant in Tajikistan, producing the Ababil-2 reconnaissance and combat drone. Then, in April of 2024, the Tajik government signed a $1.5 million agreement with Turkey on the supply of unspecified number of Bayraktar attack drones.
In a December 2022 interview, Dushanbe-based political analyst Parviz Mullojanov, said in the “ongoing arms race” Tajikistan is likely to buy modern weapons.
“We’re talking about radio and electronic warfare equipment, air defense systems that will neutralize attack drones,” he said.
Other regional countries
Other countries in the region are increasing military spending too. Kazakhstan’s defense spending has increased by 8.8% compared to last year. Uzbekistan, which does not disclose its military budget, reportedly allotted an additional $260 million to its defense budget last year.
During his January 2024 meeting with Uzbek military leaders, broadcast by Uzbek state TV, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said that by 2030, Uzbekistan will have a modernized army with high-tech weaponry. In Turkmenistan, President Gunbanguly Berdymukhamedov instructed the Defense Ministry to increase military preparedness at a meeting this month of the country’s security council.
Regional officials point to the conflicts in the post-Soviet space – such as the Ukraine war and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, border conflicts in Central Asia, and instability in Afghanistan – as reasons for beefing up their militaries.
However, Peter Leonard, a writer specializing in Central Asian affairs, told VOA, “Partly it is a matter of prestige. Authoritarian leaders like to flaunt shiny and expensive weapons. We see this visually in Turkmenistan, where officials show off their new weapons and vehicles from China, Europe and elsewhere during annual military parades. We see this trend in all of Central Asia.”
The rise in Central Asian militarization underscores changing geopolitical context as well. The Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of Russia and five other former Soviet republics — Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia – has historically played an important role in in Central Asian security matters.
However, in recent years, outside countries, including Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, China, Germany, France, and Belarus, have emerged as military partners to the Central Asian republics.
According to regional media reports, between 2010 and 2024, Turkey and Iran supplied attack drones to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the United States provided technical support and military vehicles to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; China sold air defense equipment to Uzbekistan; France and Germany sold military helicopters to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; and Belarus supplied air defense equipment to Kyrgyzstan.
Varying views on effects from militarization
With so much cash given to the military and weapons flooding the region, discussions among experts focus on the militarization’s effects. Svenja Petersen, a Berlin-based analyst and researcher specializing on the former Soviet Union, told VOA that the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan arms race was of particular concern.
“While Kyrgyz and Tajik leaders have spoken about a need to foster peace and security along the frontier, both countries have been girding for renewed battle,” she said.
A January 2023 commentary by Vecherni Bishkek, a Kyrgyzstani pro-government news website, claimed that “while the likelihood of a war is low, confrontations [between regional armed forces] are unavoidable.”
Other experts express doubt that the arms race between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will lead to conflict.
“Paradoxically,” Leonard said, “the intensification of militaries in these countries has not, in fact, exacerbated tensions but has resulted in a different outcome — which is much more cordial and practical dialogue about border demarcation. These countries, which were at a dangerous point, are on the cusp of signing a historic border agreement which will put an end to three decades of [border-related] conflict.”
Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Tashkent-based political research institute Mano said in a January 2023 media interview that he doubted that large-scale military conflicts in the region would happen.
“Undoubtedly, there are some hotspots, such as the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. But I am convinced that this conflict, though it has tendency for escalation, will be resolved.”
Regional residents also hold differing views on the effects of militarization.
Danil Usmanov, a Kyrgyzstani photojournalist who was in Kyrgyzstan’s Batken province, bordering Tajikistan, reporting on the April 2021 and September 2022 Kyrgyz border conflicts told VOA that in his conversations with residents of Kyrgyz border towns, he sensed they would prefer that Bishkek officials spend more to solve their region’s economic problems.
But, he said, they accept increased military spending and militarization of Batken “as a necessary vice to deter border conflicts with Tajikistan.”
Kyrgyz officials have defended their increased military spending, saying that it boosted their capacity to thwart potential conflicts. During his January 2024 meeting with residents of Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad province, Tashiev said weapons and related purchases have allowed a change in the Central Asian balance of power.
“We are no longer seen as a weak country that lacks [military] might. … Today, we are seen as a formidable opponent, as a strong state and strong partner. All of this indicates that our country has grown in strength,” he said.
Leonard, though, said the militarization is unlikely to bolster the Central Asian republics’ political stability.
“If Central Asian governments are perceiving conventional armed forces as a key to bolstering stability in their countries without giving sufficient attention to issues such as political reform, putting institutions in place that serve as means for relieving pressure from below, then they may be in for an unpleasant surprise,” he said.
“Kazakhstan, for instance, invests extensive resources into its army. But can that prevent events like the January 2022 nationwide protests that rocked the whole country?”
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